8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Referee: B. Van Driessche
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Union St. Gilloise, 25% draw, 16% Genk — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union St. Gilloise at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union St. Gilloise98%Draw2%Genk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁N. Havenaarout: N. Chibani
46'
58'
🔁A. Biboutout: J. Erenbjerg
🔁K. Rodriguezout: R. Mofokeng
60'
M. Sylla
63'
71'
🔁J. Kayembeout: Y. Medina
71'
🔁K. Amaroout: M. Roganovic
⚽R. Sykesassist: B. Zeneli
76'
🔁B. Zeneliout: D. Olaru
80'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: D. De Roeve
80'
83'
🔁C. Ravychout: J. Ito
84'
🔁B. Tahirovicout: N. Adedeji-Sternberg
89'
Y. Medina

Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

54%Possession46%
23Shots10
4On target0
10Corners3
1.4xG0.54

Goals against chances

Union St. Gilloise1 from 1.40 xGabout what the chances were worth
Genk0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-2-1
  • 12Hervé KoffiG
  • 26Ross SykesD
  • 29Massire SyllaD
  • 55Nikki HavenaarD
  • 27Louis PatrisM
  • 6Kamiel Van de PerreM
  • 8Adem ZorganeM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 30Raul FloruczF
  • 23Besfort ZeneliF
  • 13Kevin RodriguezF
Substitutes
  • 4Nohim ChibaniD
  • 38Relebohile MofokengF
  • 21Denzel De RoeveD
  • 28Darius OlaruM
  • 1Vic ChambaereG
  • 71Keo BoetsG
  • 17Rob SchoofsM
  • 14Ivan PavlićM
  • 10Anouar Ait El HadjM
Genk 3-4-1-2
  • 28Lucca BrughmansG
  • 6Matte SmetsD
  • 5Christiaan RavychD
  • 44Josue Ndenge KongoloD
  • 20Kevin AmaroM
  • 4Benjamin TahirovićM
  • 8Bryan HeynenM
  • 18Joris KayembeM
  • 38Daan HeymansF
  • 23Aaron BiboutF
  • 17Rafiu DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 11Jeppe ErenbjergM
  • 25Milan RoganovićD
  • 19Yaimar MedinaD
  • 10Junya ItoF
  • 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergF
  • 1Tobe LeysenG
  • 30Ayumu YokoyamaF
  • 21Ibrahima Sory BangouraM
  • 24Nikolas SattlbergerM

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-1away to SK Beveren31 October 2026
  • W5-2Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
  • D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026

Genk

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-1away to KV Mechelen31 October 2026
  • W2-1Standard Liege25 October 2026
  • W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Union St. Gilloise won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Genk conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Genk had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329
7Genk114341815+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

  • 7 March 2026Union St. Gilloise 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 21 September 2025Genk 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 3 May 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 20 April 2025Genk 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 15 March 2025Genk 2–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 10 November 2024Union St. Gilloise 4–0 GenkJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Genk

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Genk

GoalsAssists

  • R. Durosinmi60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 1–0. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: R. Sykes 76' for Union St. Gilloise. On expected goals it finished 1.40–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union St. Gilloise a 29.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 32.2% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 21.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.2%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Genk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.7% going in: 10.8% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.