7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Zlin vs Slovácko Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Letna, Zlin
Referee: Karel Roucek
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Zlin 0-1 Slovácko.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Zlin, 27% draw, 34% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zlin at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zlin0%Draw3%Slovácko97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
•Lukas Vorlicky
Prince Mbatshi Mukuba
22'
30'
Simon Sloncik
Frank Appiah
45+3'
45'
🔁Simon Sloncikout: Martin Svidersky
61'
⚽David Puskac
🔁Frank Appiahout: Lukas Bartosak
62'
🔁Tomáš Poznarout: Stanley Guzorochi Kanu
62'
70'
🔁Lukas Vorlickyout: Pavel Juroska
70'
🔁David Puskacout: Jan Fiala
🔁Michal Cupákout: Daniel Smiga
74'
🔁David Machalíkout: Cletus Nombil
74'
79'
🔁Tihomir Kostadinovout: Filip Hruška
🔁Miloš Kratochvílout: Jiří Štefan
86'
88'
🔁Gigli Ndefeout: Filip Vaško
Cletus Nombil
88'
90+1'
Filip Vaško

Match stats — Zlin vs Slovácko

32%Possession68%
4Shots21
1On target5
3Corners3
0.41xG1.94

Goals against chances

Zlin0 from 0.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
Slovácko1 from 1.94 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zlin 4-2-3-1
  • 17S. DostálG
  • 22M. FukalaD
  • 39A. KřapkaD
  • 45Prince Mbatshi MukubaD
  • 8D. MachalíkD
  • 27M. KratochvílM
  • 6J. DidibaM
  • 82M. PišojaM
  • 26M. CupákM
  • 20F. AppiahM
  • 88T. PoznarF
Substitutes
  • 64Stepan BachurekG
  • 31L. BartošákD
  • 21D. GrygeraD
  • 53T. HellebrandM
  • 14S. KanuF
  • 15Z. KatalinićD
  • 35O. KukučkaD
  • 19C. NombilM
  • 9D. ŠmigaF
Coach: P. Hoftych
Slovácko 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. HečaG
  • 21Š. SlončíkD
  • 22J. BehiratcheD
  • 19Tomáš KrálD
  • 2Gigli NdefeM
  • 26T. KostadinovM
  • 10M. TrávníkM
  • 15P. BlahútM
  • 20M. HavlíkM
  • 72L. VorlickýM
  • 30D. PuškáčF
Substitutes
  • 5F. VaškoD
  • 6M. ŠviderskýM
  • 16G. SossehM
  • 3M. RundićD
  • 28L. PriorD
  • 9A. MarinelliF
  • 77P. JuroškaM
  • 17F. HruskaM
  • 34P. HalouskaG
Coach: J. Jelinek

Form going into Zlin vs Slovácko

Zlin

Czech Liga

  • D2-2away to Artis31 October 2026
  • D1-1Sigma Olomouc24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Pardubice17 October 2026
  • L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026

Slovácko

Czech Liga

  • L1-3Teplice31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Sparta Praha25 October 2026
  • L1-2Zbrojovka Brno18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Zlin did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Zlin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Slovácko scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Slovácko failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Slovácko conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Zlin1403111127-163
15Slovácko142481326-1310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zlin vs Slovácko

  • 23 May 2026Zlin 1–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 23 November 2025Slovácko 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 26 July 2025Zlin 1–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 18 February 2024Zlin 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 2 September 2023Slovácko 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
  • 19 March 2023Slovácko 3–0 ZlinCzech Liga

The result against the call

Slovácko won 1–0 at Zlin. The model had leaned towards a win for Zlin at 39% and given a win for Slovácko 34%. The goal: David Puskac 61' for Slovácko. Sent off: Prince Mbatshi Mukuba (Zlin) 22'. On expected goals it finished 0.41–1.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zlin a 93.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 90.9% after a win, 95.0% after a draw, 96.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.9%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Slovácko the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.0% going in: 64.7% after a win, 73.6% after a draw, 80.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.7%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zlin v Slovácko has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Zlin's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Zlin win39%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Slovácko win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.