6 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

AIL Arena, Lugano
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Lugano 2-0 NSI Runavik.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% FC Lugano, 10% draw, 6% NSI Runavik — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Lugano at 84% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Lugano99%Draw1%NSI Runavik0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Pihlstromassist: Y. Cimignani
7'
🔁A. Kendouciout: D. Moncada
61'
🔁D. Dos Santosout: A. Grgic
61'
🔁Y. Cimignaniout: A. Papadopoulos
72'
77'
🔁M. Przybylskiout: T. Hestad
⚽K. Behrensassist: M. Zanotti
79'
🔁E. Pihlstromout: B. D. Castro Espinosa
82'
85'
🔁M. Lindhout: M. Danielsen

Match stats — FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

69%Possession31%
31Shots5
9On target1
15Corners3

Line-ups

FC Lugano 3-4-1-2
  • 16D. von BallmoosG
  • 46M. ZanottiD
  • 4D. KelvinD
  • 3H. DelcroixD
  • 21Y. CimignaniM
  • 14A. KendouciM
  • 27D. Dos SantosM
  • 24E. PihlstromM
  • 25U. BislimiF
  • 11R. SteffenF
  • 91K. BehrensF
Substitutes
  • 28F. GebhardtG
  • 39C. NdiayeG
  • 17L. MaiD
  • 23G. AjdinM
  • 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
  • 30D. MoncadaF
  • 33C. RaffaM
  • 8A. GrgicM
  • 6A. PapadopoulosD
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti
NSI Runavik 5-4-1
  • 13T. AmosG
  • 5A. F. ElissonD
  • 12F. DrinicD
  • 4D. ObbekjaerD
  • 3V. DavidsenD
  • 17J. BenjaminsenD
  • 11M. LindhM
  • 6B. NolsoeM
  • 29E. W. JoensenM
  • 33M. PrzybylskiM
  • 2S. Skytte
Substitutes
  • 1K. JoensenG
  • 30D. DanielsenG
  • 10K. OlsenF
  • 9T. HestadM
  • 22J. TrondargjogvD
  • 28M. DanielsenF
Coach: Sigurdur Eyjolfsson

Form going into FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

FC Lugano

  • W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
  • W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
  • W2-1FC Vaduz26 July 2026
  • W1-0Dukagjini23 July 2026

NSI Runavik

  • W2-0away to Koper30 July 2026
  • L0-2Koper23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs NSI Runavik

  • 6 August 2026FC Lugano 2–0 NSI RunavikUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: FC Lugano and NSI Runavik

FC Lugano

  • D. Moncada3 goals1 assists
  • E. Pihlström3 goals
  • Y. Cimignani3 goals

NSI Runavik

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.