6 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Paide vs Rapid Vienna UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Paide 1-4 Rapid Vienna.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Paide, 25% draw, 43% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 3.13, 4.00 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rapid Vienna at 43% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paide0%Draw1%Rapid Vienna99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
•Nikolaus Wurmbrand
5'
⚽B. Bolla (pen)
⚽D. Luts
41'
Oskar Hoim
55'
57'
Bendegúz Bolla
🔁Daniel Cabralout: H. Ojamaa
58'
59'
🔁M. Tilioout: P. Dahl
🔁A. Badamosiout: H. Anier
66'
69'
🔁T. Gulliksenout: Y. Demir
69'
🔁L. Schaubout: N. Bajlicz
69'
🔁N. Wurmbrandout: M. Haidara
🔁N. Baranovout: Andrade
80'
🔁D. Lutsout: M. Jobarteh
80'
83'
⚽M. Haidara
85'
⚽P. Dahlassist: B. Bolla
87'
🔁B. Bollaout: E. Roka
90'
⚽M. Haidaraassist: T. Adamsen

Match stats — Paide vs Rapid Vienna

26%Possession74%
8Shots22
2On target8
4Corners5

Line-ups

Paide 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. JarjuG
  • 7E. TurD
  • 27N. BaranovD
  • 3Victor HugoD
  • 2M. LilanderD
  • 10M. MillerM
  • 28O. HoimM
  • 77D. LutsM
  • 11M. P. Sohna
  • 6Daniel CabralM
  • 30A. BadamosiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. MeeritsG
  • 56M. SappG
  • 8H. OjamaaM
  • 44K. KaitD
  • 16A. SuroginM
  • 17P. A. ChamM
  • 9H. AnierF
  • 15H. OjamaaD
  • 20K. PihtF
Coach: Tarmo Kink
Rapid Vienna 4-1-3-2
  • 1N. HedlG
  • 77B. BollaD
  • 55N. CvetkovicD
  • 6S. Raux-YaoD
  • 23J. AuerD
  • 18M. SeidlM
  • 15N. WurmbrandM
  • 21L. SchaubM
  • 7M. TilioM
  • 8T. AdamsenF
  • 17T. GulliksenF
Substitutes
  • 25P. GartlerG
  • 51B. GoschlG
  • 22Y. DemirF
  • 4J. M. SchollerD
  • 10P. DahlF
  • 61F. DemirD
  • 2E. RokaD
  • 47A. GrollerD
  • 38J. HornD
Coach: Johannes Thorup

Form going into Paide vs Rapid Vienna

Paide

  • D1-1away to Zira30 July 2026
  • W1-0Zira23 July 2026

Rapid Vienna

  • W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
  • W6-2FC Santa Coloma29 July 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Santa Coloma23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Paide vs Rapid Vienna

  • 6 August 2026Paide 1–4 Rapid ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Paide and Rapid Vienna

Paide

No leading scorers listed yet.

Rapid Vienna

  • T. Adamsen4 goals1 assists
  • P. Dahl3 goals
  • Y. Demir2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.