25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Genoa vs Venezia Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee: Simone Sozza
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Genoa 1-0 Venezia.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Genoa, 29% draw, 28% Venezia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Genoa at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genoa97%Draw3%Venezia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mikael Ellertssonassist: Stephan El Shaarawy
25'
Sebastian Otoa
55'
🔁Junior Messiasout: Morten Frendrup
62'
🔁Stephan El Shaarawyout: Lorenzo Colombo
62'
🔁Sebastian Otoaout: Alessandro Marcandalli
70'
71'
🔁Ridgeciano Hapsout: Pasquale Mazzocchi
71'
🔁Toma Bašićout: Matteo Dagasso
79'
🔁Antoine Hainautout: Albion Rrahmani
🔁Mario Mitajout: David Puczka
81'
🔁Samuel Wiafeout: Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
81'
87'
🔁Simon Sohmout: Lion Lauberbach

Match stats — Genoa vs Venezia

45%Possession55%
7Shots19
4On target5
2Corners10
0.41xG1.82

Goals against chances

Genoa1 from 0.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Venezia0 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 34S. OtoaD
  • 5L. ØstigårdD
  • 22J. VásquezD
  • 77M. EllertssonM
  • 25H. TraorèM
  • 71S. WiafeM
  • 2M. MitajM
  • 10Junior MessiasM
  • 92S. El ShaarawyM
  • 18M. OsmajićF
Substitutes
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 99F. StolzG
  • 39D. SommarivaG
  • 16C. DramehD
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 4Alexsandro AmorimM
  • 11E. MeichtryM
  • 8T. BaldanziM
  • 20S. SabelliD
Coach: D. De Rossi
Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovićG
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 2M. MorenoD
  • 15Juan JesusD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71Kike PérezM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 26T. BašićM
  • 5R. HapsM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 17A. Bella-KotchapD
  • 96L. MontipòG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 77Toni FernándezM
  • 8Lamine DaboM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 56K. LismanF
  • 20R. SagradoD
  • 21Þ. HelgasonM
Coach: D. Nicola

Form going into Genoa vs Venezia

Genoa

Serie A

  • L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026

Venezia

Serie A

  • W1-0Napoli17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Genoa114161116-513
19Venezia11209821-136

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genoa vs Venezia

Genoa and Venezia have met 7 times in the records we hold, Genoa has won 5 of them to Venezia's 2.

The record

Genoa won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Genoa502108
Venezia205810

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Genoa 1–0 Venezia
  • 17 Feb 2025
    Serie A    Genoa 2–0 Venezia
  • 21 Sep 2024
    Serie A    Venezia 2–0 Genoa
  • 20 Jul 2024
    Friendlies Clubs    Venezia 1–3 Genoa
  • 22 Jul 2023
    Friendlies Clubs    Genoa 1–4 Venezia
  • 16 Jan 2023
    Serie B    Genoa 1–0 Venezia
  • 14 Aug 2022
    Serie B    Venezia 1–2 Genoa

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Genoa's attack rates 22% above Venezia's, and Genoa concede 17% fewer than Venezia. That gives Genoa the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Genoa0.830.90
Venezia0.681.08

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Genoa and Venezia

Genoa

GoalsAssists

  • M. Osmajić41

Venezia

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Genoa beat Venezia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Genoa at 43%. The goal: Mikael Ellertsson 25' for Genoa. On expected goals it finished 0.41–1.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Genoa a 39.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.0% after a win, 40.7% after a draw, 47.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.0%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

For Venezia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.9% going in: 66.3% after a win, 74.7% after a draw, 78.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.9%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Genoa v Venezia has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Genoa's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Genoa win43%▼ −6
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Venezia win28%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.