7 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Marco Di Bello
Full time3 – 0

Final score: AS Roma 3-0 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 72% AS Roma, 17% draw, 11% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Roma at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mario Hermoso
27'
⚽Sebastian Walukiewicz (OG)
30'
45'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Kieron Bowie
45'
🔁Simone Cinquegranoout: Ignace Van der Brempt
⚽Rodrigo Moraassist: Donyell Malen
58'
🔁Rodrigo Moraout: Niccolò Pisilli
66'
🔁Manu Konéout: Marten de Roon
66'
69'
🔁Kristian Thorstvedtout: Luca Lipani
69'
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Vasilije Adzic
🔁Donyell Malenout: Santiago Thomas Castro
77'
🔁Mario Hermosoout: Konstantinos Koulierakis
77'
🔁Leonardo Balerdiout: Daniele Ghilardi
85'
90'
🔁Duje Ćaleta-Carout: Fali Cande

Match stats — AS Roma vs Sassuolo

65%Possession35%
28Shots6
9On target1
12Corners1
3.81xG0.34

Goals against chances

AS Roma3 from 3.81 xGless than the chances were worth
Sassuolo0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 32D. VásquezG
  • 26L. BalerdiD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 20N. MolinaM
  • 4B. CristanteM
  • 17M. KonéM
  • 43WesleyM
  • 18M. SouléM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 77E. LulliD
  • 64Valerio MaccaroniM
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 12Levente KilvingerG
  • 68A. ArenaF
  • 61N. PisilliM
  • 9S. CastroF
  • 70G. De MarziG
Coach: G. Gasperini
Sassuolo 3-5-2
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 6S. WalukiewiczD
  • 21J. IdzesD
  • 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
  • 46S. CinquegranoM
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 55I. SulemanaM
  • 3J. DoigM
  • 94S. EspositoF
  • 45A. LaurientéF
Substitutes
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 70E. PieragnoloD
  • 77N. PieriniF
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 19L. SkjellerupF
Coach: A. Aquilani

Form going into AS Roma vs Sassuolo

AS Roma

Serie A

  • W5-2away to Udinese31 October 2026
  • W4-2Cagliari27 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Napoli24 October 2026
  • W2-0Genoa17 October 2026

Sassuolo

Serie A

  • L2-4Fiorentina2 November 2026
  • L2-6Lazio27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026

What these results say

  • AS Roma went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AS Roma scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AS Roma won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sassuolo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AS Roma118303110+2127
17Sassuolo112271629-138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Sassuolo

  • 10 January 2026AS Roma 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 26 October 2025Sassuolo 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 17 March 2024AS Roma 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 3 December 2023Sassuolo 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
  • 12 March 2023AS Roma 3–4 SassuoloSerie A
  • 9 November 2022Sassuolo 1–1 AS RomaSerie A

The full AS Roma vs Sassuolo record →

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Sassuolo

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen82
  • Rodrigo Mora40

Sassuolo

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AS Roma beat Sassuolo 3–0. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Mario Hermoso 27' for AS Roma, Sebastian Walukiewicz (own goal) 30' for AS Roma, Rodrigo Mora 58' for AS Roma. On expected goals it finished 3.81–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AS Roma a 39.5% chance to win the league: 41.7% after a win, 33.8% after a draw, 30.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.7%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Sassuolo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.5% going in: 17.6% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.5%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AS Roma v Sassuolo has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 66% / 21% / 13% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 72% / 17% / 11%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. AS Roma win72%▲ +6
  2. Draw17%▼ −4
  3. Sassuolo win11%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.