17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Referee: Tom Bauer
Full time3 – 1

Final score: VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 1. FC Heidenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% VfL Wolfsburg, 27% draw, 32% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfL Wolfsburg at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Wolfsburg99%Draw1%1. FC Heidenheim0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alexander Bernhardssonassist: Vinicius de Souza Costa
1'
21'
⚽Patrick Mainkaassist: Jan Schoppner
Hauke Wahl
32'
⚽Robert Glatzelassist: Joakim Maehle
45+1'
45'
🔁Christian Contehout: Marcel Costly
Timon Wellenreuther
58'
Fabian Reese
62'
🔁Yannick Gerhardtout: Elvis Rexhbecaj
64'
⚽Muhammed Damarassist: Fabian Reese
65'
67'
🔁Julian niehuesout: Mathias Honsak
69'
Michael Heule
80'
🔁Paul Hennrichout: Yannik Wagner
🔁Fabian Reeseout: Alessio Besio
80'
Alessio Besio
85'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Bence Dárdai
89'
🔁Muhammed Damarout: Kento Shiogai
89'
89'
🔁Mikkel Kaufmannout: Tim Siersleben

Match stats — VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim

58%Possession42%
19Shots23
10On target9
8Corners8
1.68xG2.04

Goals against chances

VfL Wolfsburg3 from 1.68 xGmore than the chances were worth
1. FC Heidenheim1 from 2.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
  • 1T. WellenreutherG
  • 26S. KumbediD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 21J. MæhleD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 5Vinicius SouzaM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 17A. BernhardssonF
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 11F. ReeseF
Substitutes
  • 30J. ZielińskiG
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 8Bence DárdaiM
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 37E. RexhbeçajM
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
Coach: Tobias Strobl
1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DähneG
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FöhrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 8P. HennrichM
  • 3J. SchöppnerM
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 10C. ContehM
  • 29M. KaufmannF
  • 18A. VogtF
Substitutes
  • 41M. ZrilicM
  • 38Y. WagnerF
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 28Adam KölleD
  • 20L. KerberM
  • 17M. HonsakF
  • 1Frank FellerG
  • 24M. CostlyF
Coach: F. Schmidt

Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim

VfL Wolfsburg

2. Bundesliga

  • D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5VfL Wolfsburg115422616+1019
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim

  • 17 January 2026VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
  • 23 August 20251. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 29 March 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 1. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
  • 10 November 20241. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 20 January 2024FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 19 August 2023VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC HeidenheimBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Heidenheim

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • F. Reese57
  • R. Glatzel51
  • A. Bernhardsson43

1. FC Heidenheim

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3–1. The model had made a win for VfL Wolfsburg its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alexander Bernhardsson 1' for VfL Wolfsburg, Patrick Mainka 21' for 1. FC Heidenheim, Robert Glatzel 45+1' for VfL Wolfsburg, Muhammed Damar 65' for VfL Wolfsburg. On expected goals it finished 1.68–2.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Wolfsburg a 54.9% chance to finish in the top four: 61.8% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 47.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.8%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

For 1. FC Heidenheim the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 68.4% going in: 75.7% after a win, 68.3% after a draw, 63.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.5%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is VfL Wolfsburg's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. VfL Wolfsburg win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.