17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern
Referee: Wolfgang Haslberger
Full time2 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-0 VfL Bochum.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 32% draw, 26% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Kaiserslautern99%Draw1%VfL Bochum0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Miloš Lukovićassist: Ibrahim Kanate
31'
53'
Karol Mets
55'
🔁Gerrit Holtmannout: Jarne Steuckers
🔁Ibrahim Kanateout: Erencan Yardimci
63'
🔁Miloš Lukovićout: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta
63'
69'
Tom Meyer
Jan Elvedi
70'
72'
🔁Koji Miyoshiout: Berkan Taz
72'
🔁Mats Henry Pannewigout: Charlie Patino
74'
Sean Klaiber
⚽Semih Sahin (pen)
75'
🔁Naatan Skyttäout: Fabian Kunze
76'
🔁Jan Elvediout: Simon Asta
76'
83'
🔁Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussenout: Daniel Hanslik
🔁Mario Sauerout: Marlon Ritter
86'

Match stats — 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum

46%Possession54%
16Shots8
3On target2
6Corners4
2.37xG0.61

Goals against chances

1. FC Kaiserslautern2 from 2.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
VfL Bochum0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 3A. MurphyD
  • 26P. JolyM
  • 8S. ŞahinM
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 22Mika HaasM
  • 15N. SkyttäM
  • 11I. KanateM
  • 45M. LukovićF
Substitutes
  • 37Leon RobinsonM
  • 7M. RitterM
  • 9I. PrtajinF
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 20M. BerishaF
  • 2S. AstaD
  • 39T. Fidjeu-TazemetaM
  • 17E. YardımcıF
  • 34Y. OnohiolG
Coach: T. Lieberknecht
VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 2S. KlaiberD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 7C. RasmussenM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 17G. HoltmannM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 10B. TazM
  • 16T. CasaliG
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 39L. IsbruchM
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
  • 28C. PatinoM
  • 31L. SawasD
  • 14J. SteuckersF
Coach: U. Rösler

Form going into 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026

VfL Bochum

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31. FC Kaiserslautern11632107+321
8VfL Bochum114251113-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum

  • 7 March 2026VfL Bochum 3–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 4 October 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 3–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 13 April 2018VfL Bochum 3–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 3 November 2017FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 5 April 2017VfL Bochum 0–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 24 October 2016FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Kaiserslautern and VfL Bochum

1. FC Kaiserslautern

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

VfL Bochum

GoalsAssists

  • P. Hofmann50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat VfL Bochum 2–0. The model had made a win for 1. FC Kaiserslautern its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Miloš Luković 31' for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, Semih Sahin (penalty) 75' for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. On expected goals it finished 2.37–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 24.0% chance to finish in the top four: 28.1% after a win, 22.1% after a draw, 18.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.1%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

For VfL Bochum the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 20.1% going in: 13.3% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 32% / 26%: the biggest move is VfL Bochum's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. 1. FC Kaiserslautern win42%▲ +3
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. VfL Bochum win26%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.