Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Köln 0-0 FC Saarbrücken.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Fortuna Köln, 28% draw, 31% FC Saarbrücken — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fortuna Köln at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
Line-ups
- 1L. WinklerG
- 17F. HeisterD
- 5Seymour FungerD
- 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweD
- 3M. FischerD
- 6T. GeerkensM
- 11G. StrauchM
- 38Bennit BrögerM
- 20A. StanilewiczM
- 7N. ThierF
- 30Romeo AigbekaenF
- 25B. ZichG
- 31Neo TelleD
- 23D. SavicM
- 16J. MichelbrinkM
- 37J. MauseF
- 2Kevin KrummeD
- 14C. HarenbrockM
- 19T. BornemannF
- 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
- 1M. BignettiG
- 42P. FahrnerD
- 21M. CvjetinovićD
- 4S. VoetD
- 28N. BretschneiderD
- 16Lee Seung-JoonM
- 5Daniel GleiberM
- 19S. VasiliadisM
- 20F. PickM
- 9K. BrünkerF
- 29A. StaffF
- 33K. BrollG
- 14Z. ShuaibM
- 3Anton BäuerleD
- 8Gökdeniz GürpüzF
- 15A. KamaraM
- 10C. KühlwetterF
- 31K. MeiselF
- 7C. RizzutoD
- 22K. CaliskanerM
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Saarbrücken | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- 7 January 2023FC Saarbrücken 2–1 Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken
Fortuna Köln
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
FC Saarbrücken
GoalsAssists
- K. Brünker51
- F. Pick34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortuna Köln and FC Saarbrücken drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortuna Köln at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Köln a 7.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.8% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For FC Saarbrücken the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.9% going in: 23.0% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.7%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortuna Köln v FC Saarbrücken has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Fortuna Köln's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Fortuna Köln win41%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −2
- FC Saarbrücken win31%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.