SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1-5 Waldhof Mannheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 31% draw, 30% Waldhof Mannheim — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
Line-ups
- 1M. ReuleG
- 8Jan Elias RahnD
- 15A. AidonisD
- 25A. NurajD
- 20Leon MaierD
- 21L. MolinariD
- 16M. KundeM
- 11T. RossmannM
- 5Volkan CeliktasM
- 18N. PollexF
- 23F. EiseleF
- 4F. BleicherM
- 36M. GashiD
- 22B. LandwehrD
- 27Loris MaierM
- 6C. MistlM
- 33T. SchulzG
- 10L. StoppelM
- 19M. UhlD
- 13N. ZografakisF
- 1T. NijhuisG
- 24L. KlünterD
- 3Moritz PolteD
- 14Oluwaseun God Power Osaro OgbemudiaD
- 17Owono Darnell KeumoD
- 8M. ThalhammerM
- 21J. RieckmannM
- 28D. MichelM
- 7L. BierschenkM
- 11Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa PessoaM
- 9Gonçalo GregórioF
- 15C. KammerknechtD
- 23L. MickelsM
- 29N. X. Muteba NTumbaF
- 13T. BoydF
- 16J. NiemannG
- 25Jid OkekeD
- 37N. Sarenren BazeeF
- 4T. SechelmannD
- 10J. UlbrichtF
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim
- 20 June 2020Waldhof Mannheim 3–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 9 November 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–3 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Waldhof Mannheim
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Waldhof Mannheim
GoalsAssists
- J. Ulbricht42
- T. Boyd41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Waldhof Mannheim won 5–1 at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The model had leaned towards a win for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 39% and given a win for Waldhof Mannheim 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luca Damiano Molinari 11' for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, Lovis Frederik Bierschenk 12' for Waldhof Mannheim, Oluwaseun Ogbemudia 26' for Waldhof Mannheim, Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba 76' for Waldhof Mannheim, Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba 79' for Waldhof Mannheim, Julian Ulbricht 87' for Waldhof Mannheim.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 32.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.5% after a win, 34.2% after a draw, 37.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.8%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.
For Waldhof Mannheim the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.3% going in: 12.6% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.6%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.