MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II 3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: MSV Duisburg 3-2 Hoffenheim II.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% MSV Duisburg, 24% draw, 20% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
MSV Duisburg at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
Line-ups
- 1M. BrauneG
- 4Martin EnsD
- 5T. FlecksteinD
- 40B. SchlickeD
- 29J. BitterM
- 6R. BulićM
- 10C. VietM
- 27C. CoşkunM
- 14C. NoßF
- 9L. LobingerF
- 11D. KotherF
- 3F. ChristensenD
- 20N. JessenD
- 8A. CasarM
- 17M. BesuschkowM
- 26F. KrügerF
- 39P. RemmertF
- 19Ramien SafiF
- 33T. StahlG
- 37P. SussekM
- 1L. PeterssonG
- 2Natnael AbrahaD
- 3Sean DulicD
- 6V. LässigD
- 13Tristan SprangerD
- 16L. EngelnsM
- 8Diren DağdevirenM
- 17B. MakandaM
- 20Juan Tiago Esteban PollerM
- 10Y. B. Zor MuhammedM
- 11J. FieldsF
- 36J. DedicF
- 23Alex HonajzerM
- 15Matthew mooreM
- 44Maxime Ndong PendaD
- 40Pistrol SantinoD
- 47Maximilian TheuerM
- 27T. TrautnerG
- 18L. WagenbachF
- 26K. ČížekM
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MSV Duisburg | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 29 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim II | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II
- 18 April 2026MSV Duisburg 3–1 Hoffenheim II3. Liga
- 21 November 2025Hoffenheim II 4–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
Leading scorers: MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- L. Lobinger44
- P. Remmert40
Hoffenheim II
GoalsAssists
- Y. B. Zor Muhammed83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
MSV Duisburg beat Hoffenheim II 3–2. The model had made a win for MSV Duisburg its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tobias Fleckstein (own goal) 22' for Hoffenheim II, Blessing Makanda Maleko 39' for Hoffenheim II, Peter Remmert 71' for MSV Duisburg, Peter Remmert 72' for MSV Duisburg, Peter Remmert 77' for MSV Duisburg.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave MSV Duisburg a 37.5% chance to win the league: 40.2% after a win, 34.1% after a draw, 30.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.2%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For Hoffenheim II the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.7% going in: 17.0% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.1%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 3. Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is MSV Duisburg's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- MSV Duisburg win56%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Hoffenheim II win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.