8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Lillestrom vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result

Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom
Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Lillestrom 3-2 Aalesund.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Lillestrom, 23% draw, 24% Aalesund — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lillestrom at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lillestrom96%Draw4%Aalesund0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ruben Gabrielsenassist: Frederik Elkaer
11'
18'
⚽Marcus Reed
37'
⚽Marcus Reedassist: Mathias Christensen
⚽Henrik Molvaer Melland
51'
Hans Erik Ødegaard
56'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
59'
60'
🔁Philip Sandvik Auklandout: Ulrik Syversen
60'
🔁Marcus Reedout: Paul Ngongo
🔁Henrik Molvaer Mellandout: Yildren Ibrahimaj
65'
🔁Filip Ottossonout: Kevin Martin Krygard
66'
🔁Camil Jebaraout: Fredrik Gulbrandsen
66'
73'
🔁Endre Osenbrochout: Sander Erik Kartum
73'
🔁Elias Heggland Myrlidout: Isak Gabriel Skotheim
78'
Kristoffer Nesso
🔁Gustav Nordhout: Seun Akanji
81'
⚽Ruben Gabrielsenassist: Fredrik Gulbrandsen
89'
🔁Thomas Lehne Olsenout: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
90+2'

Match stats — Lillestrom vs Aalesund

58%Possession42%
17Shots16
5On target5
13Corners3
2.37xG1.81

Goals against chances

Lillestrom3 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
Aalesund2 from 1.81 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 19C. JebaraM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 15G. NordhM
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
Substitutes
  • 7L. AlperudM
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 29Y. IbrahimajF
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
  • 25S. AkanjiF
Coach: H. Ødegaard
Aalesund 5-3-2
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 7K. NessøD
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 45P. AuklandD
  • 5A. Hammer KjelsenD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 21M. ChristensenM
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 15E. OsenbrochM
  • 17E. MyrlidF
  • 27H. M. ReedF
Substitutes
  • 16J. ØrsahlD
  • 19S. KartumM
  • 22E. EngqvistD
  • 8I. SkotheimM
  • 9P. NgongoF
  • 41Philip StoråsG
  • 33Theodor Kvalsund PedersenD
  • 25U. SyversenD
Coach: K. Rekdal

Form going into Lillestrom vs Aalesund

Lillestrom

Eliteserien

  • W1-0away to Start1 November 2026
  • W3-2Brann25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sandefjord18 October 2026
  • D2-2Molde11 October 2026

Aalesund

Eliteserien

  • L3-4Sandefjord31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
  • L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lillestrom went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lillestrom scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lillestrom won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aalesund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Aalesund conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lillestrom2614393935+445
15Aalesund2659124560-1524

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Aalesund

  • 15 March 2026Aalesund 1–3 LillestromEliteserien
  • 10 August 2025Lillestrom 5–1 Aalesund1. Division
  • 31 March 2025Aalesund 2–2 Lillestrom1. Division
  • 3 September 2023Aalesund 1–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 19 July 2023Lillestrom 5–1 AalesundEliteserien
  • 6 November 2022Aalesund 2–1 LillestromEliteserien

Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Aalesund

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Aalesund

GoalsAssists

  • M. Christensen116
  • H. M. Reed83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lillestrom beat Aalesund 3–2. The model had made a win for Lillestrom its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ruben Gabrielsen 11' for Lillestrom, Marcus Reed 18' for Aalesund, Marcus Reed 37' for Aalesund, Henrik Molvaer Melland 51' for Lillestrom, Ruben Gabrielsen 89' for Lillestrom. On expected goals it finished 2.37–1.81.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aalesund a 76.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 57.9% after a win, 77.6% after a draw, 85.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 85.0%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lillestrom v Aalesund has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Lillestrom's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lillestrom win53%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Aalesund win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.