Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Fredrikstad, 24% draw, 21% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Martin BorsheimG
- 38Isak Helstad AmundsenD
- 4Fredrik HolméD
- 12Ulrik FredriksenD
- 16Daniel EidM
- 6Samuel Leach HolmM
- 14Max NilssonM
- 5Simen RafnM
- 29Gabriel WessehF
- 23Henrik Langaas SkogvoldF
- 20Oskar ØhlenschlaegerF
- 7Benjamin FaraasM
- 9Salim LaghzaouiM
- 21Jakub JezierskiM
- 28Solomon OwusuD
- 1Oystein OvretveitG
- 19Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-AlemD
- 18Jonathan NorbyeD
- 24Leonard OwusuM
- 10Johannes NúñezF
- 1Michael LansingG
- 22Haakon HaugenD
- 4Julius Mar JuliussonD
- 5Dan Peter UlvestadD
- 6Jesper IsaksenD
- 10Heine Gikling BrusethM
- 20Wilfred George IgorM
- 7Sander SvendsenM
- 27Adrian Kurd RønningM
- 9Sander Hestetun KilenM
- 19Leander AlvheimF
- 11Zymer BytyqiF
- 3Frederik FlexD
- 14Syver Skundberg SkeideM
- 17Max Normann WilliamsenD
- 12Adrian SætherG
- 2Anders BørsetD
- 23Tobias Hammer SvendsenM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK
Fredrikstad
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
Kristiansund BK
- W2-1Molde9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fredrikstad | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK
- 16 August 2026Fredrikstad 1–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 19 April 2026Kristiansund BK 2–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 2 November 2025Fredrikstad 3–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 11 May 2025Kristiansund BK 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 3 November 2024Fredrikstad 1–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 8 July 2024Kristiansund BK 3–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Kristiansund BK
- L. Alvheim10 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.