Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 19% draw, 15% Sandefjord — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 66% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 87Leander ØyG
- 32Eirik WichneD
- 12Claus NiyukuriD
- 2Marius LodeD
- 21Anders HiimD
- 10Sondre SörliM
- 8Sander ChristiansenM
- 6Aimar SherM
- 77Olaus SkarsemM
- 11Daniel KarlsbakkF
- 33Andreas HansenF
- 20Peter ReinhardsenD
- 22Victor Emanuel HalvorsenM
- 15Michael OpokuM
- 7Camil MmaeeM
- 17Noa WilliamsM
- 1Jacob PrytsG
- 50Magnus Mevik EidalD
- 56Mads OlsenM
- 18Bop GuèyeM
- 30Elias HadayaG
- 4Fredrik Carson PedersenD
- 16Hakon KrogelienD
- 8Tobias BorkeeietD
- 44Xander LambrixD
- 3Vetle Walle EgeliD
- 7Evangelos PatoulidisM
- 14Edvard PettersenM
- 6Sander Risan MörkM
- 27Jakob Maslo DunsbyM
- 9Oscar KapskarmoF
- 5Gustav HøjbjergD
- 17Foster ApetorgborF
- 24Sebastian Holm MathisenF
- 21Jakob SwiftM
- 1Alf GrønnebergG
- 2Martin HellanD
- 18Mathias SauerM
- 19Bendik BerntsenF
- 32Daniel SkaarudF
Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
Sandefjord
- L0-1KFUM Oslo7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord
- 16 August 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 SandefjordEliteserien
- 22 March 2026Sandefjord 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 14 September 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 26 July 2025Sandefjord 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 7 May 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 SandefjordNM Cupen
- 4 August 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk6 goals
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.