Molde vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Molde 3-2 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Molde, 21% draw, 17% Tromso — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Molde at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Molde vs Tromso
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Albert PosiadałaG
- 25Martin LinnesD
- 4Sivert Sira HansenD
- 33Birk RisaD
- 8Mathias LøvikD
- 10Emil BreivikM
- 30Daniel DagaM
- 5Eirik HestadM
- 23Sondre Milian GranaasM
- 21Oskar Spiten-NysæterM
- 9Jalal AbdullaiF
- 28Viktor BenderM
- 26Samukelo KabiniD
- 24Trent Kone DohertyF
- 19Eirik HauganD
- 11Caleb Zady SeryF
- 12Peder Hoel LervikG
- 45Noah Ljøen ByeD
- 17Mats Møller DæhliM
- 44Igor Fabian GosikF
- 1Jakob HaugaardG
- 17Isak DahlqvistD
- 30Isak VadebuD
- 21Leon HienD
- 3Mathias TonnessenD
- 29Alexander WarnerydD
- 5David EdvardssonM
- 11Ruben JenssenM
- 7Lars Olden LarsenM
- 10Troy NyhammerF
- 22Heine Asen LarsenF
- 12Ole LauvliG
- 20Ieltsin CamõesF
- 37Sander InnværM
- 25Casper ÖyvannD
- 9Daniel BrautF
- 27Mads MikkelsenM
- 8Jesper Andreas GrundtM
- 19Aleksander Lilletun ElvebuM
- 15Viktor EkblomF
Form going into Molde vs Tromso
Molde
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
Tromso
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Molde | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 36 |
| 4 | Tromso | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Molde vs Tromso
- 16 August 2026Molde 3–2 TromsoEliteserien
- 10 May 2026Tromso 2–0 MoldeEliteserien
- 24 August 2025Molde 2–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 5 July 2025Tromso 1–0 MoldeEliteserien
- 28 September 2024Molde 5–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 28 June 2024Tromso 0–2 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Molde and Tromso
Molde
- E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
- E. Breivik7 goals7 assists
- Trent Toure Kone Doherty6 goals1 assists
Tromso
- H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.