1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Eleda Stadion, Malmö
Referee: Mohammed Al-Hakim
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Malmo FF 1-2 Hammarby FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Malmo FF, 28% draw, 46% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hammarby FF at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malmo FF0%Draw2%Hammarby FF98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Diego Garcíaassist: Otto Rosengren
7'
30'
Noah Karl Anders Persson
53'
⚽Victor Erikssonassist: Montader Madjed
58'
⚽Montader Madjedassist: Victor Lind
Robin Olsen
58'
59'
Montader Madjed
🔁Diego Garcíaout: Daniel Gudjohnsen
64'
🔁Anton Sebastian Höögout: Anders Christiansen
64'
68'
🔁Frank Junior Adjeiout: Nahir Besara
68'
🔁Tesfaldet Tekieout: Oscar Johansson
🔁Stian Gregersenout: Malte Vilhelm Frejd Pålsson
70'
73'
🔁Montader Madjedout: Waylon Renecke
Anders Christiansen
76'
🔁Jovan Milosavljevićout: Mayckel Lahdo
81'
🔁Otto Rosengrenout: Viggo Jeppsson
81'
83'
🔁Paulos Abrahamout: Oscar Steinke Brånby
Andrej Djuric
85'

Match stats — Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

52%Possession48%
9Shots21
5On target6
1Corners5
0.36xG1.84

Goals against chances

Malmo FF1 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth
Hammarby FF2 from 1.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Malmo FF 4-3-3
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. Stryger LarsenD
  • 5A. ĐurićD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 7O. RosengrenM
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 28J. MilosavljevićM
  • 45A. HoogF
  • 9Diego GarcíaF
  • 29S. HakšabanovićF
Substitutes
  • 10A. ChristiansenM
  • 11E. EkongM
  • 32D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 15M. LahdoF
  • 44M. PålssonD
  • 50William Nieroth LundgrenG
Coach: G. Helstrup
Hammarby FF 4-2-3-1
  • 1W. HahnG
  • 2E. SkoglundD
  • 4V. ErikssonD
  • 3F. WintherD
  • 16N. PerssonD
  • 5T. TekieM
  • 8M. KarlssonM
  • 26M. MadjedM
  • 28F. AdjeiM
  • 9V. LindM
  • 7P. AbrahamF
Substitutes
  • 34Filip JakobssonM
  • 11O. JohanssonM
  • 30S. KebbehF
  • 21Sourou KoneM
  • 42O. MoczarnyM
  • 24W. ReneckeD
  • 27F. JakobssonG
  • 20N. BesaraM
  • 31O. Steinke BranbyD
Coach: H. Rydström

Form going into Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

Malmo FF

Allsvenskan

  • W3-0away to Halmstad28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to IF Elfsborg23 October 2026
  • L0-1BK Hacken18 October 2026

Hammarby FF

Allsvenskan

  • W2-0Sirius29 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Mjallby AIF25 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Malmo FF28125114236+641
1Hammarby FF2818466023+3758

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF

  • 17 May 2026Hammarby FF 4–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 27 October 2025Malmo FF 1–3 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 23 April 2025Hammarby FF 2–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 2 November 2024Hammarby FF 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 April 2024Malmo FF 2–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
  • 17 September 2023Hammarby FF 1–3 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Malmo FF and Hammarby FF

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Hammarby FF

GoalsAssists

  • P. Abraham174
  • V. Lind1013
  • M. Madjed82

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hammarby FF won 2–1 at Malmo FF. The model had made a win for Hammarby FF its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Diego García 7' for Malmo FF, Victor Eriksson 53' for Hammarby FF, Montader Madjed 58' for Hammarby FF. Sent off: Andrej Djuric (Malmo FF) 85'. On expected goals it finished 0.36–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hammarby FF a 27.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 40.1% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 12.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Malmo FF v Hammarby FF has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 29% / 26% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is Malmo FF's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Malmo FF win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +2
  3. Hammarby FF win46%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.