15 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Kasımpaşa, 30% draw, 29% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kasımpaşa at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kasımpaşa4%Draw93%Trabzonspor3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Andri Fannar Baldursson
10'
43'
⚽N. Savioloassist: M. Mimaroglu
🔁F. Diabateout: H. Hajradinovic
46'
⚽A. Benedyczak (pen)
55'
58'
🔁M. Mimarogluout: M. Salah
67'
🔁N. Savioloout: S. Lopes Cabral
67'
🔁A. Simsirout: M. Kabasakal
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
68'
🔁M. Ben Ouanesout: M. Rafferty
78'
🔁G. Yalcinout: A. Karapo
82'
84'
🔁R. Malinovskyiout: O. Tufan
🔁A. Benedyczakout: S. Alkas
90+2'

Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor

41%Possession59%
9Shots13
4On target5
3Corners10
1.7xG0.79

Goals against chances

Kasımpaşa1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Trabzonspor1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2C. WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 5J. JessenD
  • 51E. MendesM
  • 16A. F. BaldurssonM
  • 12M. Ben OuanesM
  • 34F. DiabateM
  • 50G. YalcinM
  • 9A. BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 30A. T. DagbasiD
  • 10H. HajradinovicM
  • 8A. MujdeM
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 66E. BozM
  • 7A. KolF
  • 11T. DiarraF
Coach: Shota Arveladze
Trabzonspor 4-2-3-1
  • 24A. OnanaG
  • 20W. PinaD
  • 27C. NwaiwuD
  • 15S. SavicD
  • 19M. EskihellacD
  • 8B. BouchouariM
  • 17R. MalinovskyiM
  • 70N. SavioloM
  • 58A. SimsirM
  • 77M. MimarogluM
  • 30P. OnuachuF
Substitutes
  • 1A. YildirimG
  • 25O. CevikkanG
  • 4S. AkaydinD
  • 39C. OzkacarD
  • 55S. Lopes CabralD
  • 11O. TufanM
  • 57M. KabasakalM
  • 10M. SalahF
  • 14U. NayirF
Coach: Fatih Tekke

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kasımpaşa523075+29
9Trabzonspor521295+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor

  • 15 August 2026Kasımpaşa 1–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 23 January 2026Trabzonspor 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 18 August 2025Kasımpaşa 0–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 5 May 2025Kasımpaşa 1–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
  • 6 December 2024Trabzonspor 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 29 January 2024Trabzonspor 2–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor

Kasımpaşa

  • A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
  • G. Yalçın2 goals

Trabzonspor

  • Mohamed Salah4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.