8 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Gent vs Kortrijk Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Planet Group Arena, Gent
Referee: J. Boterberg
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Gent 1-0 Kortrijk.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Gent, 19% draw, 8% Kortrijk — fair odds of 1.37, 5.26 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gent at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gent99%Draw1%Kortrijk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Van Der Heyden
13'
⚽A. Kadriassist: T. Araujo
32'
46'
🔁A. Phillipsout: B. Dejaegere
🔁A. Kadriout: M. Dean
46'
46'
🔁S. Campbellout: K. Masui
🔁H. Gooreout: G. De Meyer
65'
🔁T. Araujoout: A. Ayinde
66'
70'
🔁B. Lambertout: S. Ogbuehi
79'
🔁G. Koyalipouout: J. van Landschoot
🔁M. Sonkoout: L. Lopes
79'
🔁J. Vergaraout: I. Cisse
79'
80'
B. Dejaegere
86'
⚽T. Ambrose (pen)assist: T. Ambrose
88'
A. Drouhin
89'
🔁H. Murray-Campbellout: R. Storman

Match stats — Gent vs Kortrijk

52%Possession48%
12Shots12
4On target7
4Corners1
1.58xG1.29

Goals against chances

Gent1 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Kortrijk0 from 1.29 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gent 3-4-2-1
  • 33Davy RoefG
  • 57Matties VolckaertD
  • 3Maksim PaskotsiD
  • 44Siebe Van der HeydenD
  • 45Hyllarion GooreM
  • 27Tibe De VliegerM
  • 17Mathias DelorgeM
  • 20Tiago AraújoM
  • 37Abdelkahar KadriF
  • 11Momodou SonkoF
  • 47Josué VergaraF
Substitutes
  • 21Max DeanF
  • 35Gilles De MeyerD
  • 39Abdul AyindeD
  • 22Leonardo LopesM
  • 75Ibrahima CisseF
  • 30Kjell PeersmanG
  • 56Mamadou DialloD
  • 10Aimé OmgbaM
  • 59El Hadji SeckF
Kortrijk 4-3-3
  • 31Marko IlićG
  • 15Mohamed FofanaD
  • 21Axel DrouhinD
  • 5James NdjeungoueD
  • 3Matthew AndersonD
  • 35Boris LambertM
  • 4Harrison Murray-CampbellM
  • 70Anthony PhilipsM
  • 11Shandre CampbellF
  • 10Goduine KoyalipouF
  • 68Thierry AmbroseF
Substitutes
  • 19Brecht DejaegereM
  • 71Ken MasuiM
  • 90Sixtus OgbuehiF
  • 18Jellert Van LandschootF
  • 17Rok ŠtormanM
  • 1Patrik Sigurdur GunnarssonG
  • 36Rudy KohonD
  • 22Gilles RuyssenD
  • 8Nayel MehssatouM

Form going into Gent vs Kortrijk

Gent

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-2away to Lommel United1 November 2026
  • W4-0Anderlecht25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
  • W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026

Kortrijk

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-3KV Mechelen4 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Standard Liege31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
  • W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gent won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Gent scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kortrijk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kortrijk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kortrijk conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Gent11911206+1428
18Kortrijk11119423-194

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gent vs Kortrijk

  • 16 March 2025Gent 1–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 28 July 2024Kortrijk 0–1 GentJupiler Pro League
  • 26 December 2023Kortrijk 0–2 GentJupiler Pro League
  • 30 July 2023Gent 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 15 January 2023Gent 2–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 13 November 2022Kortrijk 0–4 GentJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Gent and Kortrijk

Gent

GoalsAssists

  • I. Cisse40

Kortrijk

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gent beat Kortrijk 1–0. The model had made a win for Gent its most likely outcome, at 73%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: A. Kadri 32' for Gent. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gent a 85.1% chance to finish in the top four: 86.6% after a win, 80.9% after a draw, 77.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.6%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Kortrijk the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 94.3% going in: 89.5% after a win, 94.1% after a draw, 94.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.8%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.