8 November 2026, 19:15 UTC

Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec
Referee: S. Lezny
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Stal Mielec 2-0 Ruch Chorzów.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Stal Mielec, 27% draw, 42% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ruch Chorzów at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Mielec99%Draw1%Ruch Chorzów0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
A. Komor
61'
P. Szwedzik
⚽T. Gmurassist: M. Cebula
62'
66'
🔁A. Cosciaout: M. Pawlowski
66'
🔁M. Chrapekout: S. Nagamatsu
67'
S. Nagamatsu
⚽F. Gerbowskiassist: B. Kwiecien
68'
74'
🔁P. Szwedzikout: K. Rostek
74'
🔁S. Szymanskiout: D. Ventura
🔁K. Cybulskiout: S. Oure
76'
🔁M. Cebulaout: P. Kruszelnicki
76'
🔁T. Gmurout: P. Prajsnar
76'
83'
🔁T. Sutherlandout: D. Szczepan
🔁F. Gerbowskiout: S. Musiolik
86'
🔁B. Kwiecienout: M. Wyparlo
89'

Form going into Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 October 2026
  • D0-0Chrobry Głogów24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

Ruch Chorzów

I Liga

  • D1-1away to Pogoń Siedlce3 November 2026
  • W2-0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 October 2026
  • W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ruch Chorzów went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ruch Chorzów scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ruch Chorzów won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Stal Mielec145451927-819
5Ruch Chorzów146441714+322

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów

  • 14 March 2026Ruch Chorzów 2–1 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 31 August 2025Stal Mielec 2–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 10 March 2024Stal Mielec 3–1 Ruch ChorzówEkstraklasa
  • 1 September 2023Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Stal MielecEkstraklasa

The result against the call

Stal Mielec beat Ruch Chorzów 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Ruch Chorzów at 42% and given a win for Stal Mielec 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: T. Gmur 62' for Stal Mielec, F. Gerbowski 68' for Stal Mielec.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Stal Mielec a 33.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.5% after a win, 34.8% after a draw, 37.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.5%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

For Ruch Chorzów the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 33.5% going in: 39.5% after a win, 30.4% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.