7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Het Kuipje, Westerlo
Referee: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium
Full time1 – 5

Final score: KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% KVC Westerlo, 25% draw, 36% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KVC Westerlo at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KVC Westerlo0%Draw1%Charleroi99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
T. Rowe
C. Congreve
41'
58'
⚽A. Scheidler
60'
⚽F. Mbembaassist: A. Scheidler
🔁I. Sakamotoout: P. Diong
62'
65'
⚽P. Pflucke
🔁S. Saitoout: N. Storm
67'
🔁I. Fofanaout: E. Tsimba
67'
68'
🔁M. Keraout: I. Cisse
72'
⚽A. Scheidlerassist: F. Mbemba
🔁C. Congreveout: Yang Min-Hyuk
73'
🔁F. Ferraroout: L. Mbamba-Muanda
73'
⚽N. Bassetteassist: E. Tsimba
74'
78'
P. Pflucke
80'
🔁J. Romsaasout: A. Colassin
80'
🔁A. Scheidlerout: A. Bojang
86'
🔁P. Pfluckeout: M. Nzita
86'
🔁F. Mbembaout: G. Nawata
P. Diong
87'
89'
⚽A. Bojang (pen)
Yang Min-Hyuk
90+1'

Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi

54%Possession46%
10Shots21
3On target10
1Corners5
1.49xG2.93

Goals against chances

KVC Westerlo1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth
Charleroi5 from 2.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KVC Westerlo 4-2-3-1
  • 99Andreas JungdalG
  • 2Lasse FløD
  • 40Botond BaloghD
  • 5Seiji KimuraD
  • 88Fabio FerraroD
  • 45Ibrahim FofanaM
  • 14Cisse SandraM
  • 20Cameron CongreveM
  • 13Isa SakamotoM
  • 7Shunsuke SaitoM
  • 9Norman BassetteF
Substitutes
  • 26Pape DiongM
  • 10Nikola StormF
  • 22Felix TsimbaF
  • 23Lucas MbambaD
  • 47Yang Min-hyeokF
  • 21Jahnilo WiegelG
  • 4Amando LapageD
  • 39Thomas Van den KeybusM
  • 12Reda LaalaouiM
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
  • 30Mohamed KonéG
  • 3Kevin Van Den KerkhofD
  • 4Aiham OusouD
  • 33Noah SolheidD
  • 2Triston RoweD
  • 18Yassine KhalifiM
  • 51Mory KeraM
  • 14Patrick PflückeM
  • 8Jakob Napoleon RomsaasM
  • 20Freddy MbembaM
  • 21Aurélien ScheidlerF
Substitutes
  • 19Isaac Ismaël CisséM
  • 9Adama BojangF
  • 25Antoine ColassinF
  • 24Mardochee NzitaD
  • 13Gaku NawataM
  • 1Martin DelavalléeG
  • 54Naël PironD
  • 23Boubakar DembagaM
  • 6Amine BoukamirM

Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi

KVC Westerlo

Jupiler Pro League

  • L1-4away to Anderlecht31 October 2026
  • D4-4SK Beveren24 October 2026
  • W5-1Antwerp11 October 2026
  • W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026

Charleroi

Jupiler Pro League

  • W5-2RAAL La Louvière1 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Antwerp24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
  • W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026

What these results say

  • KVC Westerlo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • KVC Westerlo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for KVC Westerlo had three goals or more.
  • Charleroi won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Charleroi scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Charleroi conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9KVC Westerlo114252630-414
4Charleroi119022613+1327

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi

  • 16 May 2026Charleroi 0–1 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 5 April 2026KVC Westerlo 2–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 22 February 2026KVC Westerlo 2–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
  • 8 November 2025Charleroi 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 9 May 2025Charleroi 4–3 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 11 April 2025KVC Westerlo 2–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Charleroi

KVC Westerlo

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bassette80
  • S. Saito51

Charleroi

GoalsAssists

  • A. Scheidler62
  • F. Situmona Mbemba53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charleroi won 5–1 at KVC Westerlo. The model had leaned towards a win for KVC Westerlo at 39% and given a win for Charleroi 36%. The goals: A. Scheidler 58' for Charleroi, F. Mbemba 60' for Charleroi, P. Pflucke 65' for Charleroi, A. Scheidler 72' for Charleroi, N. Bassette 74' for KVC Westerlo, A. Bojang (penalty) 89' for Charleroi. Sent off: P. Diong (KVC Westerlo) 87'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–2.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KVC Westerlo a 5.4% chance to finish in the top four: 7.0% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 2.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.9%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For Charleroi the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 48.8% going in: 56.9% after a win, 46.9% after a draw, 42.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.9%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.