23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Santa Clara vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result

Ponta Delgada
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Santa Clara, 25% draw, 18% Famalicao — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Santa Clara at 57% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santa Clara97%Draw3%Famalicao0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Pacienciaassist: Sorriso
22'
Vinícius Lopes
26'
46'
🔁Gil Diasout: R. Beney
🔁Vinicius Lopesout: Welinton Torrao
62'
🔁Sorrisoout: Brenner
62'
65'
🔁P. Santosout: O. Aranda
🔁Daniel Borgesout: T. Ribeiro
74'
🔁G. Pacienciaout: Fernando
74'
75'
Léo Realpe
80'
Mathias De Amorim
81'
🔁L. Realpeout: T. Szucs
86'
🔁Pedro Bondoout: M. Jangeal
86'
🔁G. Koutsiasout: R. Almeida
88'
Mathis Jangeal
🔁J. Tavaresout: H. Silva
88'

Match stats — Santa Clara vs Famalicao

32%Possession68%
12Shots9
2On target3
1Corners9
1.36xG1.05

Goals against chances

Santa Clara1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Famalicao0 from 1.05 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas FrancaG
  • 2Diogo CalilaD
  • 4P. PachecoD
  • 21E. FernandesD
  • 5Guilherme RomaoD
  • 6P. FerreiraM
  • 8J. TavaresM
  • 99SorrisoM
  • 41Daniel BorgesM
  • 70Vinicius LopesM
  • 9G. PacienciaF
Substitutes
  • 12NenecaG
  • 42Lucas SoaresD
  • 20T. RibeiroM
  • 3H. SilvaD
  • 37RildoF
  • 22VitinhoM
  • 25F. MedeirosF
  • 73Leo JacoF
  • 11Welinton TorraoF
Coach: Petit
Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevicG
  • 17R. PinheiroD
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro BondoD
  • 6T. Van de LooiM
  • 14M. De AmorimM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 10P. SantosM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 22Gabriel CabralG
  • 2GarciaD
  • 30V. Serafimovic
  • 36M. MattaraD
  • 19P. MoreiraM
  • 8M. PenaM
  • 24M. JangealM
  • 21T. Szucs
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Form going into Santa Clara vs Famalicao

Santa Clara

  • W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026

Famalicao

  • L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Santa Clara6420114+714
13Famalicao604257-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Famalicao

  • 23 August 2026Santa Clara 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 18 January 2026Santa Clara 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 10 August 2025Famalicao 3–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 10 May 2025Santa Clara 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 30 December 2024Famalicao 1–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 24 November 2024Famalicao 0–1 Santa ClaraTaça de Portugal

Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Famalicao

Santa Clara

  • Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists

Famalicao

  • G. Koutsias3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.