19 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Municipal de Barreiro, Vigo
Referee: Gonzalo Romero Freixas
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Celta de Vigo II 1-1 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Celta de Vigo II, 25% draw, 28% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Celta de Vigo II at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celta de Vigo II5%Draw91%Tenerife4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
César Álvarez Abrante
⚽Alvaro·Marin Sesmaassist: Joel Lopez
28'
Enrique Ribes Recaj
43'
🔁Enrique Ribes Recajout: Alexis Olmedo Vila
43'
45'
🔁Jesus Alvarezout: Juanjo Sánchez
45'
🔁Mauro Pittonout: A. Krdžalić
50'
⚽Nacho Gil
57'
🔁Dani Fernándezout: Noel López
🔁Pablo Gavián Alonsoout: Frank Germain Jonathan Miller
65'
🔁Aldrine Kibetout: Jan Oliveras
65'
66'
🔁Christian Pierre Louis Gomisout: Jesús De Miguel Alameda
69'
Jorge Moreno San Vidal
Frank Germain Jonathan Miller
76'
🔁Ángel Arcosout: Vladimir Henrique Silva
82'
🔁Hugo Cuencaout: Mateo Sobral Sabajanes
82'
85'
🔁Enric Gallegoout: Fabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa
Óscar Marcos
90+1'

Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife

53%Possession47%
14Shots9
4On target3
4Corners4
1.01xG0.43

Goals against chances

Celta de Vigo II1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tenerife1 from 0.43 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celta de Vigo II 3-4-3
  • 1Coke CarrilloG
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 18Joel LópezD
  • 2P. GavianM
  • 17H. CuencaM
  • 16Adrià CapdevilaM
  • 11Ángel ArcosM
  • 15A. KibetF
  • 9A. MarinF
  • 10O. MarcosF
Substitutes
  • 31Raúl Chirveches SánchezD
  • 19A. Davila OutereloF
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
  • 23G. MillerD
  • 14Jan OliverasD
  • 21Alexis OlmedoD
  • 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
  • 27Noah Rodríguez GuallarM
Coach: Fredi
Tenerife 4-4-2
  • 1Dani MartínG
  • 19César ÁlvarezD
  • 5Jorge MorenoD
  • 12A. LandázuriD
  • 2David RodríguezD
  • 29Daniel FernándezM
  • 20M. PittónM
  • 16Jesús ÁlvarezM
  • 10Nacho GilM
  • 17C. GomisF
  • 18Enric GallegoF
Substitutes
  • 7M. PečarM
  • 21Marc MateuD
  • 11Noel LópezF
  • 40Gabriel LozanoG
  • 4José LeónD
  • 23A. KrdžalićM
  • 3R. JureškinD
  • 22G. RanosF
  • 6JuanjoM
Coach: Álvaro

Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife

Celta de Vigo II

Segunda División

  • W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026

Tenerife

Segunda División

  • D1-1Girona12 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Celta de Vigo II133461925-613
14Tenerife123631517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife

  • 13 March 2026Celta de Vigo II 1–1 TenerifePrimera División RFEF - Group 1
  • 15 November 2025Tenerife 4–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife

Celta de Vigo II

GoalsAssists

  • A. Marin81

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta de Vigo II at 47% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alvaro·Marin Sesma 28' for Celta de Vigo II, Nacho Gil 50' for Tenerife. On expected goals it finished 1.01–0.43.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celta de Vigo II a 9.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.8% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.9%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

For Tenerife the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 13.9% going in: 9.6% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 15.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.0%.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 25% / 28%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Celta de Vigo II win47%▲ +8
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Tenerife win28%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.