Guimaraes vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Guimaraes 1-0 Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Guimaraes, 23% draw, 27% Nacional — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guimaraes at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guimaraes vs Nacional
Line-ups
- 1Renato MarinG
- 34Léo SantosD
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 38Ze VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 28LizieroM
- 22Filipe SoaresM
- 7Markus JensenM
- 8Miguel BaezaF
- 10Daniel JúniorF
- 99Pablo Messias CardozoF
- 21Williams KokoloD
- 2Daniel De la CruzD
- 11Stavros GavrielM
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 20Matchoi DjalóM
- 23Mateus Jose IseppeM
- 88Deivison Souza BritoM
- 9Allen ObandoF
Form going into Guimaraes vs Nacional
Guimaraes
- L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026
- L0-1Arouca8 August 2026
Nacional
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Guimaraes vs Nacional
- 23 August 2026Vitória SC 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2026Nacional 2–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 2 January 2026Vitória SC 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 3 May 2025Nacional 1–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 23 December 2024Vitória SC 2–2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 26 April 2021Nacional 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga