7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Newport County vs Walsall FA Cup prediction & result

Rodney Parade, Newport
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Newport County 3-1 Walsall.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Newport County, 28% draw, 34% Walsall — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Newport County at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newport County99%Draw1%Walsall0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Andrew Dallas
⚽Kion Eteteassist: Ciaran Brennan
19'
⚽Michael Adu-Poku
23'
28'
Charlie Crew
30'
L. Grant
🔁Michael Adu-Pokuout: Aaron Lewis
56'
59'
James Furlong
⚽Kion Etete
60'
63'
🔁Lewis Simperout: Reece Smith
63'
🔁Andrew Dallasout: Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
63'
🔁Charlie Crewout: Isaac Moore
76'
🔁Aaron Pressleyout: Albert Adomah
🔁Cameron Normanout: joe thomas
79'
88'
Reece Smith
🔁Matthew Smithout: Cameron Evans
90'
🔁Yahya Bambaout: Shaquille Gwengwe
90'
🔁Kion Eteteout: James Crole
90'
90'
🔁Courtney Alphonso Clarkeout: Ryan Sjoerdsma

Match stats — Newport County vs Walsall

42%Possession58%
17Shots9
7On target6
3Corners4

Line-ups

Newport County 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WrightG
  • 22C. NormanD
  • 5L. JenkinsD
  • 34D. SassiD
  • 3T. DaviesD
  • 8M. SmithM
  • 6C. BrennanM
  • 23M. Adu-PokuM
  • 10H. BigginsM
  • 20Y. BambaM
  • 28K. EteteF
Substitutes
  • 2C. EvansM
  • 7K. EvansM
  • 11J. CroleF
  • 19G. GarnerF
  • 9S. GwengweF
  • 18A. LewisD
  • 17Alfie MerrittD
  • 12Joe ThomasD
  • 25J. TurnerG
Coach: H. Mullins
Walsall 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WardG
  • 22E. AhuiD
  • 25D. SkuraD
  • 26R. LeakD
  • 3M. HancockD
  • 6S. SpranglerM
  • 8C. CrewM
  • 10L. SimperM
  • 9A. DallasM
  • 17Courtney ClarkeM
  • 19A. PressleyF
Substitutes
  • 31Tom WoosterG
  • 37A. AdomahF
  • 5H. BurkeD
  • 29J. FurlongD
  • 20Roman DixonD
  • 7Taione Richard Evumena SodjeF
  • 15Isaac MooreM
  • 57R. SjordesmaM
  • 11R. SmithM
Coach: Lee Grant

Form going into Newport County vs Walsall

Newport County

League Two

  • W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
  • D1-1York17 October 2026

Walsall

League Two

  • W3-1away to Colchester31 October 2026
  • L2-4Salford City26 October 2026
  • W3-0Oldham20 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Swindon Town17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fleetwood Town10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Newport County conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Newport County failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Newport County scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Walsall scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Walsall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Walsall.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Newport County154742219+319
6Walsall135712112+922

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newport County vs Walsall

  • 21 March 2026Walsall 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 8 November 2025Newport County 2–4 WalsallLeague Two
  • 21 April 2025Newport County 0–0 WalsallLeague Two
  • 29 December 2024Walsall 2–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 10 February 2024Walsall 0–3 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 20 October 2023Newport County 3–3 WalsallLeague Two

Leading scorers: Newport County and Walsall

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Walsall

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pressley90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Newport County beat Walsall 3–1. The model had made a win for Newport County its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andrew Dallas 7' for Walsall, Kion Etete 19' for Newport County, Michael Adu-Poku 23' for Newport County, Kion Etete 60' for Newport County.

How the call on Newport County v Walsall has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Newport County's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Newport County win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Walsall win34%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.