Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gwangju FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 31% draw, 27% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC
Line-ups
- 41M. ParkG
- 11Kim Tae-HwanD
- 45Byeon Jun-SooD
- 26Lee Jung-TaekD
- 3Park Cheol-WooD
- 7Go Jae-HyeonM
- 8Kim Yi-SeokM
- 56K. LeeM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 9G. LeeF
- 5Kim Min-KyuD
- 6Lee Soo-BinM
- 14Park Se-JinM
- 17Kim Joo-ChanF
- 21Kim In-GyunF
- 42Hong Si-HooD
- 51Ahn Jun-SuG
- 53Roh Kyung-HoM
- 57Jung Jae-MinF
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 2Jang Seok-HwanD
- 17Joao PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 1Kim Kyeong-minG
- 3Lee Min-KiD
- 7E. SaitoskiM
- 11H. FridjonssonF
- 16Joung Ji-hunM
- 19Ahn Hyeok-JuF
- 24Y. Kim
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 37Ri Yong-jikM
Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Ulsan Hyundai FC29 August 2026
- D0-0Jeonbuk Motors25 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeju United FC22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul8 August 2026
Gwangju FC
All competitions we cover
- L2-5FC Seoul30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Gangwon FC26 August 2026
- L0-1Incheon United23 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimcheon Sangmu FC had two goals or fewer.
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kim Yi-Seok 26' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, Go Jae-Hyeon 54' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, J. Iredale 66' for Gwangju FC, H. Fridjonsson 77' for Gwangju FC.
How the call on Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Gwangju FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 30% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 31% / 27%: the biggest move is Gimcheon Sangmu FC's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC win42%▼ −4
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Gwangju FC win27%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.