Gnistan vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 3-4 AC Oulu.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Gnistan, 26% draw, 28% AC Oulu — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gnistan at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gnistan vs AC Oulu
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 19B. MilovanovD
- 24P. GnanouD
- 67A. ObileyeD
- 3RuxiD
- 14S. EremenkoD
- 27O. HannulaM
- 31A. JouhiM
- 26R. EremenkoM
- 23S. YlätupaM
- 10J. LatonenF
- 11D. PérezF
- 7A. AtarahF
- 50J SelengeF
- 25Noah RossiD
- 40J. OjalaD
- 2B. DahlströmD
- 95M. JuriÄkaG
- 62Tobias BackmanG
- 16O. KemppainenD
- 5M. PitkänenD
- 66J. PirinenD
- 22T. KaukuaD
- 36J. LotvonenM
- 21I. MendolinM
- 25M. ArsaloM
- 27E. KallioM
- 10C. TrianaF
- 7R. KarjalainenF
- 3J. LietsaD
- 2S. SipolaD
- 12J. PenttiG
- 14N. JokelainenM
- 29S. SilanderD
- 30J. MakelainenM
- 40J. KorhonenM
- 9R. RiskiF
- 11L. GhezaliF
Form going into Gnistan vs AC Oulu
Gnistan
Finnish Premier League
- L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026
AC Oulu
Finnish Premier League
- W2-1away to Inter Turku17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gnistan | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 46 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs AC Oulu
- 12 September 2026AC Oulu 1–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 18 July 2026AC Oulu 0–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 4 April 2026Gnistan 1–5 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
- 25 August 2025Gnistan 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
- 10 May 2025AC Oulu 2–3 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 27 September 2024Gnistan 1–0 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Gnistan and AC Oulu
Gnistan
GoalsAssists
- A. Akinyemi50
- A. Jouhi31
AC Oulu
GoalsAssists
- R. Karjalainen56
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AC Oulu won 4–3 at Gnistan. The model had leaned towards a win for Gnistan at 46% and given a win for AC Oulu 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mikko Pitkanen 5' for AC Oulu, Iiro Mendolin 10' for AC Oulu, Sergey Eremenko 22' for Gnistan, Otso Virtanen (own goal) 45+1' for AC Oulu, Adam Jouhi 51' for Gnistan, Lamine Ghezali 85' for AC Oulu, Adam Jouhi 90+1' for Gnistan. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.85.
How the call on Gnistan v AC Oulu has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Gnistan's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Gnistan win46%▼ −4
- Draw26%=
- AC Oulu win28%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.