24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

VPS vs Inter Turku Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Referee: Kontinen Joona
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VPS 0-1 Inter Turku.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% VPS, 29% draw, 49% Inter Turku — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Turku at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS0%Draw3%Inter Turku97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Antti-Ville Raisanen
39'
42'
Janne-Pekka Laine
🔁Yassin Daoussiout: Jonathan Muzinga
45+4'
Lassana Mané
62'
64'
Julius Tauriainen
64'
🔁Alie Contehout: Lauri Laine
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Paulo Lima
68'
🔁Lassana Manéout: Dren terrnava
68'
🔁Wilson Samakeout: Xavier Odhiambo
68'
77'
Janne-Pekka Laine
80'
🔁Clinton Degol Jephtaout: Jean Botué
81'
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Muhammed Suso
81'
🔁Herman Sjögrellout: Johannes Yli-Kokko
🔁Henri Salomaaout: Joonas Vahtera
81'
84'
⚽Lauri Laineassist: Eeli Kiiskilä
89'
🔁Julius Tauriainenout: Yeboah Amankwah
Jonathan Muzinga
90+3'

Match stats — VPS vs Inter Turku

45%Possession55%
5Shots11
0On target3
1Corners7
0.33xG0.98

Goals against chances

VPS0 from 0.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
Inter Turku1 from 0.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 3Razak SimpsonD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiM
  • 24Y. DaoussiM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 2L. ManeM
  • 29W. SamakéF
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
Substitutes
  • 18A. ArrakoskiD
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 30J. VahteraM
Coach: J. Nuorela
Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 14J. LaineM
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 7H. SjögrellF
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 16C. JephtaF
Substitutes
  • 28L. LaineF
  • 18S. SaarinenD
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
Coach: V. Vasara

Form going into VPS vs Inter Turku

VPS

Finnish Premier League

  • L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026

Inter Turku

Finnish Premier League

  • L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS32117143243-1140
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs Inter Turku

  • 14 September 2026Inter Turku 1–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 2 August 2026VPS 0–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 30 June 2026VPS 2–3 Inter TurkuSuomen Cup
  • 4 April 2026Inter Turku 0–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 31 August 2025Inter Turku 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 19 April 2025VPS 0–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: VPS and Inter Turku

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Turku won 1–0 at VPS. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Inter Turku at 49%. The goal: Lauri Laine 84' for Inter Turku. Sent off: Janne-Pekka Laine (Inter Turku) 77'. On expected goals it finished 0.33–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 41.7% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 53.8% after a win, 31.8% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 12.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VPS v Inter Turku has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 22% / 27% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 22% / 29% / 49%: the biggest move is Inter Turku's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. VPS win22%=
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Inter Turku win49%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.