19 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Belshina vs Slavia Mozyr Premier League prediction & result

Spartak Stadium, Bobruisk
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Belshina 2-4 Slavia Mozyr.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Belshina, 28% draw, 35% Slavia Mozyr — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Belshina at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Belshina0%Draw1%Slavia Mozyr99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Arseni Achapovskiyassist: vladislav rusenchik
17'
35'
⚽Kirill Chernookassist: Denis·Fedorenko
⚽Arseni Achapovskiyassist: vladislav davydov
37'
42'
🔁Aleksandr Derzhinskiyout: Evgeni Shevchenko
60'
Ivan Bionchik
61'
Andrey Solovey
61'
🔁Pavel·Chikidaout: Terentiy Lutsevich
62'
⚽Aleksey Antilevski
🔁Nikita Golubout: Nikita Sokolovskiy
69'
73'
🔁Dimitri Yashinout: Aleksandr Batichev
73'
🔁Aleksey Antilevskiout: Andrei Shemruk
75'
⚽Evgeni Shevchenkoassist: Aleksandr Batichev
🔁Pavel Seleznevout: Nikita Nekrasov
77'
🔁Yuri Kozlovout: V Kovalev
84'
86'
⚽Andrey Soloveyassist: Evgeni Shevchenko

Match stats — Belshina vs Slavia Mozyr

49%Possession51%
9Shots15
8On target7
5Corners2

Line-ups

Belshina 3-1-4-2
  • 31Pavel PrishivalkoG
  • 6D. LazarevD
  • 17I. VikhrovD
  • 78G. YakushevichD
  • 5P. SeleznevM
  • 14V. DavydovM
  • 8V. RusenchikM
  • 10Y. KozlovM
  • 27L. ZgurskiyM
  • 21N. GolubF
  • 7A. AchapovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 18N. NekrasovF
  • 54N. PatsenkoG
  • 19N. SokolovskiyD
  • 4V. SolanovichD
  • 15K. MalykhD
  • 25A. MakhmudovG
  • 3A. KuchinskiyD
  • 77V. KovalevM
  • 66K. BalotnikauD
Coach: Aleksandr Volodko
Slavia Mozyr 4-4-2
  • 16E. AbramovichG
  • 27Pavel ChikidaD
  • 88D. YashinD
  • 18N. MelnikovD
  • 4I. RashchenyaD
  • 19A. DerzhinskiyM
  • 6Y. KuznetsovM
  • 14D. FedorenkoM
  • 11A. AntilevskiyM
  • 17K. ChernookF
  • 31A. SoloveyF
Substitutes
  • 9O. BatyshchevM
  • 30V. LikhtinM
  • 44T. LutsevichF
  • 3Ricky NgatchouD
  • 7N. RomanovF
  • 2A. ShemrukD
  • 21E. ShevchenkoF
  • 20I. VerenichF
  • 1K. VeretynskiyG
Coach: I. Bionchik

Form going into Belshina vs Slavia Mozyr

Belshina

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to Naftan10 October 2026

Slavia Mozyr

Premier League

  • L1-3away to Dinamo Minsk15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Belshina2866163053-2324
10Slavia Mozyr2897123638-234

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Belshina vs Slavia Mozyr

  • 31 May 2026Slavia Mozyr 2–1 BelshinaPremier League
  • 25 February 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–0 BelshinaFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 September 2023Slavia Mozyr 4–1 BelshinaPremier League
  • 22 April 2023Belshina 1–1 Slavia MozyrPremier League
  • 6 November 2022Belshina 1–4 Slavia MozyrPremier League
  • 8 July 2022Slavia Mozyr 2–0 BelshinaPremier League

Leading scorers: Belshina and Slavia Mozyr

Belshina

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.

Slavia Mozyr

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lutsevich21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Slavia Mozyr won 4–2 at Belshina. The model had leaned towards a win for Belshina at 37% and given a win for Slavia Mozyr 35%. The goals: Arseni Achapovskiy 17' for Belshina, Kirill Chernook 35' for Slavia Mozyr, Arseni Achapovskiy 37' for Belshina, Aleksey Antilevski 62' for Slavia Mozyr, Evgeni Shevchenko 75' for Slavia Mozyr, Andrey Solovey 86' for Slavia Mozyr.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Belshina a 44.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.7% after a win, 47.0% after a draw, 58.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.0%, 14 points higher than before the match.

For Slavia Mozyr the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 3.2% going in: 0.0% after a win, 2.1% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Belshina v Slavia Mozyr has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Belshina win37%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Slavia Mozyr win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.