30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

Paris FC vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Paris FC 3-0 Nice.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Paris FC, 28% draw, 23% Nice — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paris FC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris FC99%Draw1%Nice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
⚽L. Sinayoko (pen)
21'
⚽S. Cherguiassist: I. Kebbal
51'
🔁M. Simonout: R. Matondo
63'
63'
🔁N. Ngoumouout: E. Wahi
🔁P. Pagisout: P. Zabi
72'
73'
🔁M. Abdelmonemout: A. Mendy
73'
🔁A. Witselout: I. Jansson
82'
🔁J. Claussout: H. Koutoune
82'
🔁M. Bardout: D. Morana
🔁I. Kebbalout: H. Traore
83'
🔁Otavioout: V. Marchetti
83'
⚽V. Marchettiassist: P. Zabi
89'

Match stats — Paris FC vs Nice

46%Possession54%
15Shots15
4On target4
2Corners4
2.74xG0.57

Goals against chances

Paris FC3 from 2.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nice0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 6OtavioD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 27M. SimonM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 14H. TraoreD
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 8P. ZabiM
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 11J. KrassoF
Coach: Liam Rosenior
Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5M. AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 26M. BardM
  • 7G. HeinF
  • 10S. DiopF
  • 29N. NgoumouF
Substitutes
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 33A. MendyD
  • 84H. KoutouneD
  • 87E. PereiraM
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 44Z. DialloF
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 11E. WahiF
  • 41D. Morana
Coach: Olivier Pantaloni

Form going into Paris FC vs Nice

Paris FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026

Nice

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Lorient22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Paris FC106221710+720
6Nice105231512+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Nice

  • 1 March 2026Paris FC 1–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 28 September 2025Nice 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1

Leading scorers: Paris FC and Nice

Paris FC

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sinayoko95

Nice

GoalsAssists

  • E. Wahi62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paris FC beat Nice 3–0. The model had made a win for Paris FC its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Sinayoko (penalty) 21' for Paris FC, S. Chergui 51' for Paris FC, V. Marchetti 89' for Paris FC. On expected goals it finished 2.74–0.57.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.