30 August 2026, 13:00 UTC

Paris FC vs Nice Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Paris FC 3-0 Nice.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Paris FC, 28% draw, 23% Nice — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Paris FC at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paris FC99%Draw1%Nice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Youssouf Ndayishimiye
⚽L. Sinayoko (pen)
21'
⚽S. Cherguiassist: I. Kebbal
51'
🔁M. Simonout: R. Matondo
63'
63'
🔁N. Ngoumouout: E. Wahi
🔁P. Pagisout: P. Zabi
72'
73'
🔁M. Abdelmonemout: A. Mendy
73'
🔁A. Witselout: I. Jansson
82'
🔁J. Claussout: H. Koutoune
82'
🔁M. Bardout: D. Morana
🔁I. Kebbalout: H. Traore
83'
🔁Otavioout: V. Marchetti
83'
⚽V. Marchettiassist: P. Zabi
89'

Match stats — Paris FC vs Nice

46%Possession54%
15Shots15
4On target4
2Corners4
2.74xG0.57

Goals against chances

Paris FC3 from 2.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nice0 from 0.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paris FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. TrappG
  • 17A. CamaraD
  • 31S. CherguiD
  • 42D. CoppolaD
  • 6OtavioD
  • 20M. LopezM
  • 33P. Lees-MelouM
  • 10I. KebbalM
  • 7P. PagisM
  • 27M. SimonM
  • 9L. SinayokoF
Substitutes
  • 16O. NkambadioG
  • 5M. MbowD
  • 14H. TraoreD
  • 28T. De SmetD
  • 8P. ZabiM
  • 4V. MarchettiM
  • 23R. MatondoM
  • 18O. SissokoF
  • 11J. KrassoF
Coach: Liam Rosenior
Nice 3-4-2-1
  • 23Y. DioufG
  • 5M. AbdelmonemD
  • 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
  • 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
  • 92J. ClaussM
  • 39D. CoulibalyM
  • 28A. WitselM
  • 26M. BardM
  • 7G. HeinF
  • 10S. DiopF
  • 29N. NgoumouF
Substitutes
  • 77T. BoulhendiG
  • 33A. MendyD
  • 84H. KoutouneD
  • 87E. PereiraM
  • 38A. CamaraM
  • 44Z. DialloF
  • 21I. JanssonF
  • 11E. WahiF
  • 41D. Morana
Coach: Olivier Pantaloni

Form going into Paris FC vs Nice

Paris FC

  • D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026

Nice

  • D0-0Lorient22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Paris FC422062+48
18Nice402215-42

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Nice

  • 30 August 2026Paris FC 3–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 1 March 2026Paris FC 1–0 NiceLigue 1
  • 28 September 2025Nice 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1

Leading scorers: Paris FC and Nice

Paris FC

  • L. Sinayoko4 goals

Nice

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.