Ajax vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 2-2 Heerenveen.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Ajax, 22% draw, 18% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs Heerenveen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30Aaron BouwmanD
- 15Youri BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18Davy KlaassenM
- 6Youri RegeerM
- 23Steven BerghuisM
- 10Oscar GloukhM
- 68Abdellah OuazaneM
- 9Kasper DolbergF
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 8Julian BrandtM
- 24Jorthy MokioM
- 20Oliver Valaker EdvardsenF
- 99Tolu ArokodareF
- 26Maarten PaesG
- 22Joeri HeerkensG
- 4Ko ItakuraD
- 3Anton GaaeiD
- 22Bernt KlaverboerG
- 45Oliver BraudeD
- 4Sam KerstenD
- 3Maas WillemsenD
- 19Vasilios ZagaritisD
- 16Marcus LindayM
- 6Dirk Wanner ProperM
- 20Jacob TrenskowM
- 10Ringo MeerveldM
- 11Luca OyenM
- 9Dylan VenteF
- 7Maxence RiveraM
- 29Lanroy MachineF
- 28Hristiyan PetrovD
- 30Timo SchreuderG
- 44Andries NoppertG
- 23Darling BladiD
- 17Nikolai Soyset HoplandD
- 41Jimte ScholtenD
- 36Nolhan CourtensM
Form going into Ajax vs Heerenveen
Ajax
- D2-2away to Shelbourne13 August 2026
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
- W3-1Shelbourne6 August 2026
- W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
- W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026
Heerenveen
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 13 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Heerenveen
- 16 August 2026Ajax 2–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 17 May 2026Heerenveen 0–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 1 November 2025Ajax 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 19 January 2025Heerenveen 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 August 2024Ajax 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 11 February 2024Heerenveen 3–2 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and Heerenveen
Ajax
- J. Brandt3 goals
- D. Klaassen3 goals
Heerenveen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.