23 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Granada CF vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result

Granada
Referee: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Granada CF 2-1 Valladolid.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Granada CF, 26% draw, 27% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Granada CF at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Granada CF96%Draw4%Valladolid0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sergio Rodelas Pintorassist: José Manuel Arnáiz
14'
20'
Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
50'
Julien Ponceau
🔁José Manuel Arnáizout: Owen Emeka
52'
57'
⚽Iván Garrielassist: Julien Ponceau
Juanjo Flores
61'
🔁Baïla Dialloout: Diego Varela Pampín
65'
🔁Sergio Lópezout: Pau Casadesús
65'
🔁Mario Jiménez Gambínout: Chinaza Onouha
65'
⚽Jorge Pascualassist: Gerard Gumbau
67'
70'
🔁Tay Abedout: Yeray Cabanzón
70'
🔁Thiago Ezequiel Ojedaout: Kaj de Rooij
70'
🔁Victor Barberaout: Robin van Duiven
73'
Iván Alejo
🔁Sergio Rodelas Pintorout: Kader Bamba
77'
81'
🔁Julien Ponceauout: Mathis Lachuer
86'
Mathis Lachuer
87'
🔁Adrian Arnuout: Tomás Fernández Sabatini
90+6'
•David Torres
90+7'
David Torres

Match stats — Granada CF vs Valladolid

42%Possession58%
10Shots14
7On target8
3Corners4
0.87xG1.36

Goals against chances

Granada CF2 from 0.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
Valladolid1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Granada CF 4-3-3
  • 1Alberto FloresG
  • 18Sergio LópezD
  • 30Juan José Flores CastroD
  • 5Manu LamaD
  • 22B. DialloD
  • 6GumbauM
  • 4Rubén AlcarazM
  • 27M. GambinM
  • 7Sergio RodelasF
  • 10Jorge PascualF
  • 11José ArnáizF
Substitutes
  • 2Pau CasadesúsD
  • 17K. BambaF
  • 35B. DembeleD
  • 33A. GarciaD
  • 23B. GimberD
  • 3Diego HormigoD
  • 13Raúl LizoainG
  • 34Manuel Maza BarrancoM
  • 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
Coach: José Rojo Martín
Valladolid 4-1-3-2
  • 1Álvaro AcevesG
  • 14Iván AlejoD
  • 15Pablo TomeoD
  • 4David TorresD
  • 27Iván GarrielD
  • 24S. JurićM
  • 8T. OjedaM
  • 23T. AbedM
  • 21J. PonceauM
  • 17Victor BarberáF
  • 19Adrian ArnuncioF
Substitutes
  • 16Álex BalboaM
  • 11Yeray CabanzónF
  • 18ClercD
  • 33Tomás Fernández SabatiniF
  • 6M. LachuerM
  • 26L. LavagninoG
  • 13Dani MartínG
  • 5Ramón MartínezD
  • 2TrilliD
Coach: Fran Escribá

Form going into Granada CF vs Valladolid

Granada CF

Segunda División

  • W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026

Valladolid

Segunda División

  • L2-3Eldense18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Granada CF127232014+623
12Valladolid145362221+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Valladolid

  • 14 February 2026Granada CF 5–1 ValladolidSegunda División
  • 3 November 2025Valladolid 2–1 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 11 April 2021Valladolid 1–2 Granada CFLa Liga
  • 22 November 2020Granada CF 1–3 ValladolidLa Liga
  • 28 August 2020Granada CF 0–3 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 February 2020Granada CF 2–1 ValladolidLa Liga

Leading scorers: Granada CF and Valladolid

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pascual40

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Granada CF beat Valladolid 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Granada CF at 47%. The goals: Sergio Rodelas Pintor 14' for Granada CF, Iván Garriel 57' for Valladolid, Jorge Pascual 67' for Granada CF. Sent off: David Torres (Valladolid) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valladolid a 18.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 12.8% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 20.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.9%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.