24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Girona vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
Referee: Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla, Spain
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Girona 5-1 Celta de Vigo II.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Girona, 24% draw, 21% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Girona at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Girona99%Draw1%Celta de Vigo II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Vladyslav Vanatassist: Unai Hernández
17'
⚽Unai Hernándezassist: Vladyslav Vanat
20'
•Vladyslav Vanat
27'
28'
Pablo González Meixús
⚽Vladyslav Vanat (pen)
29'
⚽Carles Pérezassist: Yaser Asprilla
38'
41'
Hugo Cuenca
⚽Vladyslav Vanatassist: Mateu Morey
55'
57'
🔁Frank Germain Jonathan Millerout: Mateo Sobral Sabajanes
57'
🔁Hugo Cuencaout: Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye
🔁Mateu Moreyout: Abdul Mumin
59'
🔁Fran Beltranout: Iván Morante
59'
🔁Unai Hernándezout: Donny van de Beek
59'
59'
⚽Óscar Marcos
61'
🔁Ángel Arcosout: Jan Oliveras
🔁Vladyslav Vanatout: Oleksandr Pyshchur
67'
🔁Carles Pérezout: Christian Stuani
73'
77'
🔁Óscar Marcosout: Stefan Bajcetic
77'
🔁Adrià Capdevilaout: Aldrine Kibet
77'
Jan Oliveras
90+1'
Joel Lopez
Christian Stuani
90+3'

Match stats — Girona vs Celta de Vigo II

65%Possession35%
21Shots3
8On target3
7Corners2
3.32xG0.73

Goals against chances

Girona5 from 3.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
Celta de Vigo II1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Girona 4-2-3-1
  • 13P. GazzanigaG
  • 3Mateu MoreyD
  • 5David LópezD
  • 16Alejandro FrancésD
  • 11Álex MorenoD
  • 8Fran BeltránM
  • 24I. GonzalezM
  • 22Y. AsprillaM
  • 23Carles PérezM
  • 30Unai HernándezM
  • 19V. VanatF
Substitutes
  • 10PortuF
  • 25V. KrapyvtsovG
  • 33M. FurtadoD
  • 14Iván MoranteM
  • 2A. MuminD
  • 6D. van de BeekM
  • 38Holmes ZamoranoD
  • 7C. StuaniF
  • 9Abel RuizF
Coach: Quique Álvarez
Celta de Vigo II 3-4-2-1
  • 1Coke CarrilloG
  • 2P. GavianD
  • 6P. MeixusD
  • 3K. RibesD
  • 23G. MillerM
  • 17H. CuencaM
  • 16Adrià CapdevilaM
  • 18Joel LópezM
  • 10O. MarcosM
  • 11Ángel ArcosM
  • 9A. MarinF
Substitutes
  • 25M. GonzalezG
  • 29M. SobralD
  • 27Noah Rodríguez GuallarM
  • 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
  • 14Jan OliverasD
  • 4S. M. NdiayeD
  • 15A. KibetM
  • 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
  • 19A. Davila OutereloF
Coach: Fredi

Form going into Girona vs Celta de Vigo II

Girona

Segunda División

  • W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026

Celta de Vigo II

Segunda División

  • D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
  • W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Girona147342413+1124
17Celta de Vigo II133461925-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Girona and Celta de Vigo II

Girona

GoalsAssists

  • V. Vanat52
  • Y. Asprilla51

Celta de Vigo II

GoalsAssists

  • A. Marin81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Girona beat Celta de Vigo II 5–1. The model had made a win for Girona its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Vladyslav Vanat 17' for Girona, Unai Hernández 20' for Girona, Vladyslav Vanat (penalty) 29' for Girona, Carles Pérez 38' for Girona, Vladyslav Vanat 55' for Girona, Óscar Marcos 59' for Celta de Vigo II. Sent off: Pablo González Meixús (Celta de Vigo II) 28'. On expected goals it finished 3.32–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Girona a 17.2% chance to finish in the top two: 19.3% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Celta de Vigo II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 11.7% going in: 7.2% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Girona v Celta de Vigo II has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Girona's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Girona win55%▼ −5
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Celta de Vigo II win21%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.