24 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Almeria vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result

UD Almería Stadium, Almeria
Referee: German Cid Camacho
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Almeria 2-2 Oviedo.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Almeria, 25% draw, 24% Oviedo — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Almeria at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sergio Arribas Calvoassist: Quim junyent
16'
⚽Miguel De La Fuenteassist: Álex Muñoz
27'
45+1'
David Costas
45'
🔁Aritz Aldasoroout: Pablo Saenz
45'
🔁Alberto Reinaout: Víctor García Mingo
53'
Pablo Saenz
Marcos Luna
54'
59'
🔁José Luis Moralesout: Estanis Pedrola
🔁Quim junyentout: Adrián Embarba
64'
🔁Brian Cipengaout: Leonardo Lelo
64'
69'
🔁Mikel Goti Lopezout: Daniel Villahermosa
75'
Nacho Vidal
🔁Miguel De La Fuenteout: Léo Baptistão
78'
Adrián Embarba
82'
86'
Víctor García Mingo
86'
🔁David Costasout: Jacobo González
87'
⚽Jacobo González
90'
⚽Jorge Pulido (OG)
90+2'
Daniel Villahermosa

Match stats — Almeria vs Oviedo

40%Possession60%
7Shots20
3On target8
4Corners7
0.7xG1.35

Goals against chances

Almeria2 from 0.70 xGmore than the chances were worth
Oviedo2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1Andrés FernándezG
  • 2Marcos LunaD
  • 5Jorge PulidoD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 3Álex MuñozD
  • 29S. DžodićM
  • 14Javi MuñozM
  • 33Quim JunyentM
  • 11Sergio ArribasM
  • 17B. CipengaM
  • 24Miguel de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 21ChumiD
  • 12Léo BaptistãoF
  • 23Adri EmbarbaF
  • 9ThalysF
  • 28I. KonéF
  • 13Fernando MartínezG
  • 7Jon MorcilloF
  • 32A. PopovD
  • 20Álex SolaF
Coach: Xavier García Pimienta
Oviedo 4-2-3-1
  • 13Aarón EscandellG
  • 22Nacho VidalD
  • 4David CostasD
  • 12Dani CalvoD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 16Aritz AldasoroM
  • 5Y. DidiM
  • 10Alberto ReinaM
  • 8Mikel GotiM
  • 32Enzo PerezM
  • 25José Luis MoralesF
Substitutes
  • 21David JiménezD
  • 1Miguel NarváezG
  • 2AisarM
  • 30Marco EstebanD
  • 6Dani VillahermosaM
  • 19B. DominguèsM
  • 24A. IșfanF
  • 17EstanisF
  • 20Pablo SáenzF
Coach: Julián Calero

Form going into Almeria vs Oviedo

Almeria

Segunda División

  • W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026

Oviedo

Segunda División

  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Almeria1410222611+1532
9Oviedo146352018+221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almeria vs Oviedo

  • 11 June 2025Oviedo 1–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 7 June 2025Almeria 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
  • 1 February 2025Almeria 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
  • 13 October 2024Oviedo 3–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 29 January 2022Oviedo 2–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
  • 20 August 2021Almeria 2–1 OviedoSegunda División

Leading scorers: Almeria and Oviedo

Almeria

GoalsAssists

  • Miguel de la Fuente91

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Almeria and Oviedo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Almeria at 51% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sergio Arribas Calvo 16' for Almeria, Miguel De La Fuente 27' for Almeria, Jacobo González 87' for Oviedo, Jorge Pulido (own goal) 90' for Oviedo. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almeria a 53.2% chance to finish in the top two: 57.3% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 45.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 51.0%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For Oviedo the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 4.1% going in: 6.2% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 3.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.8%.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Almeria v Oviedo has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Almeria's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Almeria win51%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Oviedo win24%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.