24 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Cordoba vs Eibar Segunda División prediction & result

Cordoba
Referee: Juan Gordillo, Spain
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Cordoba 2-0 Eibar.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Cordoba, 26% draw, 44% Eibar — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Eibar at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cordoba99%Draw1%Eibar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
•Javier Martón Ansó
17'
🔁Elijah Gift Izobodo Johnout: jon guruzeta
Daniel Esmoris Tasende
17'
Adnane Ghailan Benktib
41'
•Juan Gutiérrez
45+5'
Juan Gutiérrez
45+5'
⚽Eder Garcia
50'
54'
🔁Pejiñoout: Iván Gil
54'
🔁Ander Madariaga Susaetaout: Lucas Nuñez Ramirez
⚽Diego Percanassist: Adnane Ghailan Benktib
56'
🔁Diego Percanout: Victor Sánchez Morales
61'
🔁Diego Briout: Salim El Jebari
61'
66'
🔁Jair Amadorout: Markel Arana Mateo
66'
🔁Javier Martón Ansóout: Jon Bautista
🔁Daniel Esmoris Tasendeout: Carlos Albarran
66'
🔁Daniel Budescaout: Rubén González Alves
75'
🔁Adnane Ghailan Benktibout: Damián Cáceres Rodríguez
75'
76'
Lucas Nuñez Ramirez
Iker Álvarez
82'
87'
Imanol García
Álex Martín
90'

Match stats — Cordoba vs Eibar

58%Possession42%
23Shots14
11On target4
16Corners3
2.56xG1.68

Goals against chances

Cordoba2 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Eibar0 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cordoba 4-3-3
  • 1Iker ÁlvarezG
  • 30Daniel BudescaD
  • 5Juan GutiérrezD
  • 4Álex MartínD
  • 3Dani TasendeD
  • 28Eder GarcíaM
  • 8Isma RuizM
  • 14Adnane GhailanM
  • 23Cristian CarracedoF
  • 9PercanF
  • 11Diego BriF
Substitutes
  • 13Guilherme FernandesG
  • 27Egoitz MuñozD
  • 21Carlos AlbarránD
  • 16Rubén AlvesD
  • 20Nélson MonteD
  • 7T. ZidaneM
  • 18Enol RodríguezF
  • 19Ibai SanzF
  • 24S. El JebariF
Coach: Iván Ania
Eibar 4-2-3-1
  • 13Jon MikelG
  • 2Sergio CuberoD
  • 5Peru NolaskoainD
  • 15Jair AmadorD
  • 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
  • 30Aleix GarridoM
  • 8Ander MadariagaM
  • 27Elijah Gift Izobodo JohnM
  • 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
  • 17PejiñoM
  • 20Javi MartónF
Substitutes
  • 9Jon BautistaF
  • 21Iván GilM
  • 14OlaetxeaM
  • 19Eric PérezF
  • 22Álvaro RodríguezD
  • 10Jon GuruzetaM
  • 34Oier LlorenteD
  • 1Luis LópezG
  • 28Lucas NuñezM
Coach: Jokin Arambarri

Form going into Cordoba vs Eibar

Cordoba

Segunda División

  • W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026

Eibar

Segunda División

  • D1-1Mallorca17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Oviedo12 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cordoba146262525020
6Eibar127232114+723

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Eibar

  • 24 May 2026Eibar 2–0 CordobaSegunda División
  • 13 December 2025Cordoba 0–0 EibarSegunda División
  • 25 May 2025Eibar 4–1 CordobaSegunda División
  • 17 December 2024Cordoba 2–1 EibarSegunda División
  • 23 May 2015Eibar 3–0 CordobaLa Liga
  • 16 January 2015Cordoba 1–1 EibarLa Liga

Leading scorers: Cordoba and Eibar

Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • Percan63
  • Eder García42

Eibar

GoalsAssists

  • Iván Gil41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cordoba beat Eibar 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Eibar at 44% and given a win for Cordoba 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Eder Garcia 50' for Cordoba, Diego Percan 56' for Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 2.56–1.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cordoba a 18.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 13.0% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 21.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.0%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Eibar the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 31.4% going in: 35.9% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 25.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cordoba v Eibar has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 27% / 25% / 48% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Eibar's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Cordoba win30%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Eibar win44%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.