Toulouse vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Toulouse, 25% draw, 34% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Toulouse at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16G. RestesG
- 94I. DialloD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 2R. NicolaisenD
- 12C. TapéD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 14N. SigurM
- 11S. OppongM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 44G. BakhoucheD
- 37Y. AziziF
- 49Aymen AmaaouchF
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 60M. NifloreG
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 6A. VossahM
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 6I. DoukouréD
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 10G. ReynaM
- 80Gessime YassineF
- 40C. HarderF
- 20M. GodoF
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 43Y. BeckerD
- 21P. DiopM
- 16G. AntwiD
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 11S. NanasiM
- 28Tyrese NoubissieM
- 30J. OrtegaF
Form going into Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to Marseille1 November 2026
- D0-0Estac Troyes25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
- W5-1Auxerre1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Rennes25 October 2026
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Toulouse failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
- Strasbourg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
- 3 May 2026Strasbourg 1–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 6 December 2025Toulouse 1–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 16 March 2025Strasbourg 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 12 January 2025Toulouse 1–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 7 April 2024Toulouse 0–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 27 August 2023Strasbourg 2–0 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Strasbourg
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toulouse beat Strasbourg 3–1. The model had made a win for Toulouse its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Santiago Hidalgo 45+1' for Toulouse, Mark McKenzie 56' for Toulouse, Giovanni Reyna 67' for Strasbourg, Thomas Jorgensen 76' for Toulouse. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.57.
How the call on Toulouse v Strasbourg has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 45% / 24% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Toulouse's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Toulouse win41%▼ −4
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Strasbourg win34%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.