Telstar vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Telstar 2-2 Cambuur.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Telstar, 28% draw, 27% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Telstar at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Telstar vs Cambuur
Line-ups
- 1R. KoemanG
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 3Gerald AldersM
- 17N. RossenM
- 10T. OwusuM
- 2J. HardeveldM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27P. BrouwerM
- 11N. ÞórissonF
- 5P. AningM
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 8E. DemircanF
- 14H. KusterM
- 42A. MarthaD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 28R. OudstenD
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 1T. JansenG
- 2D. BouahD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 6J. AmofaM
- 8N. SourenM
- 15F. KvamM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 13N. BinderF
- 9S. VinkF
- 22L. PlogmannG
- 16R. MuldersD
- 33M. MaertensM
- 27W. KooistraF
- 24M. KalisvaartG
- 23L. JettenD
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 30J. ÇekaF
Form going into Telstar vs Cambuur
Telstar
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
- L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
- W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026
Cambuur
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026
- L0-4Excelsior7 August 2026
What these results say
- Cambuur did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Cambuur conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Cambuur had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Cambuur
- 19 July 2025Cambuur 0–2 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2025Cambuur 2–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 29 November 2024Telstar 2–2 CambuurEerste Divisie
- 23 March 2024Cambuur 1–0 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 18 August 2023Telstar 2–3 CambuurEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and Cambuur
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui62
- I. Hamache53
- N. Binder52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Telstar and Cambuur drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Telstar at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Rafik El Arguioui 53' for Cambuur, Nicolas Binder 60' for Cambuur, Ronald Koeman Jr (penalty) 63' for Telstar, Ronald Koeman Jr (penalty) 90+11' for Telstar. Sent off: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson (Telstar) 22'.
How the call on Telstar v Cambuur has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Telstar's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Telstar win45%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Cambuur win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.