6 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Telstar vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Telstar 2-2 Cambuur.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Telstar, 28% draw, 27% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Telstar at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Telstar0%Draw4%Cambuur96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson
22'
Rui Mendes
28'
28'
Ismaël Baouf
42'
🔁Ismaël Baoufout: sami bouhoudane
53'
⚽Rafik El Arguiouiassist: Nicolas Binder
🔁Rui Mendesout: Jelani Seedorf
60'
60'
⚽Nicolas Binderassist: Ilyes Hamache
⚽Ronald Koeman Jr (pen)
63'
🔁Nils Rossenout: Harrie Kuster
66'
🔁Jeff Hardeveldout: Prince Aning
66'
68'
🔁Nicolas Binderout: Mathieu Maertens
68'
🔁Fabian Kvamout: Jason Ceka
72'
🔁Morgan Costarelliout: Rik Mulders
72'
🔁Devid Eugene Bouahout: Lucas Jetten
78'
Rik Mulders
Abdelnour Soualhia
85'
🔁Tyrone Owusuout: Noach Shenkman
87'
🔁Gerald Aldersout: Rojendro Oudsten
87'
•Marvin Peersman
90'
90'
sami bouhoudane
90+7'
Rafik El Arguioui
•Abdelnour Soualhia
90+10'
⚽Ronald Koeman Jr (pen)
90+11'
Ronald Koeman Jr
90+12'

Match stats — Telstar vs Cambuur

42%Possession58%
11Shots8
2On target3
4Corners2

Line-ups

Telstar 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. KoemanG
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 3Gerald AldersM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 10T. OwusuM
  • 2J. HardeveldM
  • 7Rui MendesM
  • 27P. BrouwerM
  • 11N. ÞórissonF
Substitutes
  • 5P. AningM
  • 6Isaiah AhmedM
  • 8E. DemircanF
  • 14H. KusterM
  • 42A. MarthaD
  • 13Finn MulderG
  • 28R. OudstenD
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
Coach: H. Brugge
Cambuur 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 2D. BouahD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 6J. AmofaM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 15F. KvamM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 11I. HamacheM
  • 13N. BinderF
Substitutes
  • 9S. VinkF
  • 22L. PlogmannG
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 27W. KooistraF
  • 24M. KalisvaartG
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 29Iwan HenstraF
  • 30J. ÇekaF
Coach: J. Plat

Form going into Telstar vs Cambuur

Telstar

  • L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
  • L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026

Cambuur

  • L1-4Twente30 August 2026
  • L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Fortuna Sittard15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Telstar6123511-65
15Cambuur6114918-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Telstar vs Cambuur

  • 6 September 2026Telstar 2–2 CambuurEredivisie
  • 19 July 2025Cambuur 0–2 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
  • 31 January 2025Cambuur 2–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
  • 29 November 2024Telstar 2–2 CambuurEerste Divisie
  • 23 March 2024Cambuur 1–0 TelstarEerste Divisie
  • 18 August 2023Telstar 2–3 CambuurEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Telstar and Cambuur

Telstar

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Cambuur

  • R. El Arguioui4 goals
  • I. Hamache3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.