6 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Heerenveen, 29% draw, 35% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heerenveen at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen0%Draw4%AZ Alkmaar96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Ro Zangelo Daalassist: Wouter Goes
⚽Nolhan courtensassist: Dylan Vente
21'
Nolhan courtens
28'
⚽Ringo Meerveldassist: Dirk Proper
30'
45'
🔁Mateo Chávezout: Mees de Wit
45'
🔁Weslley Pinto Batistaout: Calvin Stengs
54'
Ro Zangelo Daal
64'
🔁Jordy Clasieout: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
🔁Dylan Venteout: Roberts Uldriķis
68'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Luca Oyen
68'
68'
🔁Elijah Dijkstraout: Seiya Maikuma
69'
⚽Mexx Meerdinkassist: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
🔁Dirk Properout: Levi Smans
74'
82'
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Ayoub Oufkir
83'
⚽Ayoub Oufkirassist: Mexx Meerdink
🔁Nolhan courtensout: Hristiyan Petrov
88'
90+1'
Ayoub Oufkir

Match stats — Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

45%Possession55%
14Shots15
5On target8
4Corners3

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 6D. ProperM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 49Anass BouzianeM
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 29L. MachineF
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 41J. ScholtenD
  • 30T. SchreuderG
Coach: R. Veldeman
AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 7Weslley PatatiM
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 75H. de WitM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 24A. OufkirF
  • 20A. NataliD
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 18B. KovacsF
  • 71I. KaG
  • 31R. IchiharaD
Coach: L. Echteld

Form going into Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen

  • D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
  • L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026

AZ Alkmaar

  • W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Heerenveen613279-26
2AZ Alkmaar6510176+1116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 6 September 2026Heerenveen 2–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 12 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 23 November 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 22 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 2 March 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 14 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 9–1 HeerenveenEredivisie

Leading scorers: Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar

Heerenveen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

AZ Alkmaar

  • R. Daal4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.