Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Heerenveen, 29% draw, 35% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Line-ups
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 36N. CourtensM
- 6D. ProperM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 49Anass BouzianeM
- 23D. BladiD
- 21M. FarjiF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 29L. MachineF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 11L. OyenF
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 75H. de WitM
- 14C. StengsM
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 24A. OufkirF
- 20A. NataliD
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 18B. KovacsF
- 71I. KaG
- 31R. IchiharaD
Form going into Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
All competitions we cover
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
What these results say
- Heerenveen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heerenveen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heerenveen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar won every one of these 4 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
- 12 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 23 November 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 22 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 2 March 2025Heerenveen 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 14 September 2024AZ Alkmaar 9–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AZ Alkmaar won 3–2 at Heerenveen. The model had leaned towards a win for Heerenveen at 36% and given a win for AZ Alkmaar 35%. The goals: Ro Zangelo Daal 7' for AZ Alkmaar, Nolhan courtens 21' for Heerenveen, Ringo Meerveld 30' for Heerenveen, Mexx Meerdink 69' for AZ Alkmaar, Ayoub Oufkir 83' for AZ Alkmaar.