Heerenveen vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Heerenveen, 26% draw, 30% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 16M. LindayM
- 8N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 14L. SmansM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 23D. BladiD
- 49Anass BouzianeM
- 21M. FarjiF
- 2M. HilgersD
- 28H. PetrovD
- 29L. MachineF
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 15M. EgbringD
- 44A. NoppertG
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 8I. YegoianM
- 3R. MeissenM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 19D. GardenF
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
- 6D. van VianenM
- 22O. TurayD
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 28N. GroenF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
Form going into Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Excelsior
- 7 March 2026Excelsior 1–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 4 October 2025Heerenveen 2–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 19 January 2024Excelsior 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 23 September 2023Heerenveen 0–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 13 May 2023Heerenveen 0–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Excelsior
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heerenveen beat Excelsior 4–0. The model had made a win for Heerenveen its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dylan Vente (penalty) 11' for Heerenveen, Oliver Johansen Braude 54' for Heerenveen, Luca Oyen 84' for Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow 88' for Heerenveen. On expected goals it finished 2.33–0.73.
How the call on Heerenveen v Excelsior has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Heerenveen's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Heerenveen win44%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Excelsior win30%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.