16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Le Mans vs Toulouse Ligue 1 prediction & result

MMArena, Le Mans
Referee: Aurelien Petit, France
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Le Mans, 24% draw, 34% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Le Mans at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Le Mans0%Draw1%Toulouse99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
⚽Jacen Russell-Roweassist: Aron Dønnum
49'
Jacen Russell-Rowe
59'
⚽Aron Dønnum
🔁Yasser Larouciout: Lucas Calodat
61'
🔁Dame Gueyeout: Habib Diallo
61'
🔁Daouda Traoreout: Bilal Brahimi
61'
64'
🔁Aron Dønnumout: Alexis Vossah
🔁Lucas Buadesout: Rayan Bamba
69'
76'
🔁Jacen Russell-Roweout: Julián Vignolo
🔁Harold Voyerout: Noa Boissé
77'
78'
•Casper Tengstedt
85'
🔁Rasmus Nicolaisenout: Seny Koumbassa
87'
⚽Casper Tengstedtassist: Cristian Casseres
Samuel Yohou
90'
Djibril Sidibé
90+4'

Match stats — Le Mans vs Toulouse

53%Possession47%
11Shots13
1On target5
2Corners2
0.98xG1.83

Goals against chances

Le Mans0 from 0.98 xGless than the chances were worth
Toulouse3 from 1.83 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Le Mans 3-1-4-2
  • 98N. KocikG
  • 19D. SidibéD
  • 17S. YohouD
  • 5H. VoyerD
  • 29L. BretelleM
  • 18L. BuadésM
  • 23D. TraoréM
  • 10J. VercruysseM
  • 76Y. LarouciM
  • 25D. GuèyeF
  • 14L. MafoutaF
Substitutes
  • 15N. BoisséD
  • 26R. BambaD
  • 7B. BrahimiF
  • 22L. CalodatD
  • 13H. DialloF
  • 20W. HarhouzF
  • 1E. HatfoutG
  • 8A. LaurayM
  • 9A. RabillardF
Coach: P. Videira
Toulouse 4-2-3-1
  • 16G. RestesG
  • 22R. MessaliD
  • 3M. McKenzieD
  • 2R. NicolaisenD
  • 12C. TapéD
  • 23C. CásseresM
  • 14N. SigurM
  • 15A. DønnumM
  • 20C. TengstedtM
  • 8T. JørgensenM
  • 13J. Russell-RoweF
Substitutes
  • 6A. VossahM
  • 18M. AmougouM
  • 1T. CollinG
  • 94I. DialloD
  • 9S. HidalgoF
  • 5S. KoumbassaD
  • 19D. OdoguD
  • 31N. SchmidtM
  • 7Julián VignoloF
Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Form going into Le Mans vs Toulouse

Le Mans

Ligue 1

  • L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026

Toulouse

Ligue 1

  • D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Le Mans101541219-78
12Toulouse103431514+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Le Mans and Toulouse

Le Mans

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mafouta41
  • A. Bourabaa32

Toulouse

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tengstedt51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Toulouse won 3–0 at Le Mans. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Mans at 42% and given a win for Toulouse 34%. The goals: Jacen Russell-Rowe 46' for Toulouse, Aron Dønnum 59' for Toulouse, Casper Tengstedt 87' for Toulouse. On expected goals it finished 0.98–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Le Mans a 14.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Toulouse the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.2% going in: 6.8% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Le Mans v Toulouse has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 24% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Le Mans win42%▲ +1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Toulouse win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.