16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Reims vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims
Referee: Eddy Rosier, France
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Reims 4-2 Dijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Reims, 24% draw, 27% Dijon — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Reims at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Reims99%Draw1%Dijon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
🔁Ben-Chayeel Hamadaout: W. Diouf
12'
⚽Adel Lembezatassist: Ange Lago
⚽Yaya Fofanaassist: seydou dembele
19'
⚽Mohammed Daramyassist: Daouda Guindo
22'
🔁Mohammed Daramyout: Arone Gadou
28'
35'
W. Diouf
⚽Daouda Guindo
36'
45'
🔁H. Vargas Ríosout: Brandon Nsimba Ndezi
⚽Arone Gadouassist: Yaya Fofana
54'
61'
🔁Boubacar Dialloout: Moussa Faty
62'
🔁Jordan Mariéout: Samy Chouchane
🔁seydou dembeleout: Tidiane Diarrassouba
63'
🔁Youssef el Kachatiout: Sambou Soumano
63'
🔁Chamsedin Kouranfalout: John Patrick
78'
🔁Theo Leoniout: John Otomewo
78'
82'
🔁Júlio Tavaresout: Yanis Barka
85'
⚽Yanis Barkaassist: Brandon Nsimba Ndezi

Match stats — Reims vs Dijon

36%Possession64%
12Shots13
7On target4
3Corners5
1.21xG1.44

Goals against chances

Reims4 from 1.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dijon2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Reims 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HülsmannG
  • 21J. MambukuD
  • 28N. AhouononD
  • 22S. KottoD
  • 27D. GuindoD
  • 61C. KouranfalM
  • 6T. LeoniM
  • 46seydou dembeleM
  • 8Y. FofanaM
  • 9M. DaramyM
  • 10Y. El KachatiF
Substitutes
  • 18Sergio AkiemeD
  • 7T. DiarrassoubaF
  • 30J. PatrickM
  • 19A. GadouF
  • 12E. OmeragicG
  • 5John OtomewoD
  • 77Quentin ParisF
  • 99S. SoumanoF
  • 63A. ZohouriD
Coach: N. Usaï
Dijon 4-1-3-2
  • 16P. DelecroixG
  • 7B. HamadaD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 75Boubacar DialloD
  • 14J. MariéM
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 20H. Vargas-RíosM
  • 90A. LagoF
  • 11Júlio TavaresF
Substitutes
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 22T. MeynadierD
  • 71Enzo KetterleG
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 9T. DongF
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 21Samy Olivier ChouchaneM
  • 10Y. BarkaF
  • 18B. NdeziM
Coach: B. Ridira

Form going into Reims vs Dijon

Reims

Ligue 2

  • D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026

Dijon

Ligue 2

  • W4-2Metz12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Reims125612415+921
6Dijon125342119+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Reims vs Dijon

  • 21 March 2021Dijon 0–1 ReimsLigue 1
  • 6 January 2021Reims 0–0 DijonLigue 1
  • 28 September 2019Reims 1–2 DijonLigue 1
  • 9 March 2019Dijon 1–1 ReimsLigue 1

Leading scorers: Reims and Dijon

Reims

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Fofana112

Dijon

GoalsAssists

  • Júlio Tavares51
  • Y. Barka40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Reims beat Dijon 4–2. The model had made a win for Reims its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Adel Lembezat 12' for Dijon, Yaya Fofana 19' for Reims, Mohammed Daramy 22' for Reims, Daouda Guindo 36' for Reims, Arone Gadou 54' for Reims, Yanis Barka 85' for Dijon. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Reims a 62.3% chance to finish in the top four: 67.5% after a win, 60.0% after a draw, 54.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.5%, 5.2 points higher than before the match.

For Dijon the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 30.5% going in: 38.6% after a win, 29.8% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Reims v Dijon has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Reims win49%▲ +1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Dijon win27%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.