Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ham-Kam, 21% draw, 33% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.17, 4.76 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ham-Kam at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Marcus SandbergG
- 26Patrick MetcalfeD
- 2Martin GjoneD
- 23Fredrik SjolstadD
- 3Ethan Amundsen-DayD
- 7Viðar Ari JónssonD
- 17Aksel Baran PoturM
- 14Luc MaresM
- 8Markus JohnsgardM
- 29Blerton IsufiF
- 28David BenjaminF
- 16Anders TrondsenM
- 19Henrik UdahlF
- 6William Osnes-RingenM
- 22Snorre Strand NilsenD
- 24Danilo Al-SaedF
- 13Sander ØstraatG
- 5Aleksander AndresenD
- 10Loris MettlerM
- 20Julian Bakkeli GonstadF
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 14Uba CharlesD
- 4Simen HaramD
- 45Philip Sandvik AuklandD
- 3Ólafur GuðmundssonD
- 7Kristoffer NessøD
- 21Mathias ChristensenM
- 18Elias Kristoffersen HagenM
- 15Endre Hjertager OsenbrochM
- 39Kristian LonebuF
- 27Marcus Haagensen ReedF
- 22Emil EngqvistD
- 6Hakon Butli HammerM
- 17Elias Heggland MyrlidF
- 20Ivan DjantouF
- 26Tor Erik LarsenG
- 2Marius AndresenD
- 16Jakob Nyland ÖrsahlD
- 10Mathias KristensenM
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
Ham-Kam
- W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
Aalesund
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
- 9 August 2026Ham-Kam 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 29 May 2026Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 May 2025Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamNM Cupen
- 13 August 2023Aalesund 0–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 7 July 2023Ham-Kam 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 17 March 2023Aalesund 3–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Aalesund
Ham-Kam
- M. Alassane Niang6 goals
Aalesund
- M. Christensen7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.