8 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Full time2 1

Final score: Viking 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Viking, 27% draw, 31% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Viking at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking4%Draw92%Sarpsborg 08 FF4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
O. Skarsem
33'
B. Utvik
H. Heggheim
40'
40'
A. Sher
Z. Tripic
50'
61'
🔁O. Skarsemout: N. Williams
61'
🔁A. Nibeout: V. E. Halvorsen
🔁S. Kvia-Egeskogout: O. Visted
65'
🔁R. Alteout: J. Hansen
65'
🔁S. Bjorsholout: H. J. Haugen
65'
Z. Tripic (pen)assist: Z. Tripic
68'
70'
🔁C. Niyukuriout: E. Wichne
81'
S. Sorli
85'
🔁A. Sherout: Camil Mmaee
🔁V. Auklendout: R. Postema
87'
🔁E. Austboout: N. Fuglestad
88'
Z. Tripic (pen)
90+5'
A. Ostbo
90+10'

Match stats — Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

50%Possession50%
18Shots25
8On target3
11Corners8
3.11xG2.31

Goals against chances

Viking2 from 3.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Sarpsborg 08 FF1 from 2.31 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viking 4-3-3
  • 1Arild ØstbøG
  • 18Sondre Flem BjørsholD
  • 5Henrik HeggheimD
  • 6Gianni StensnessD
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 16Ruben AlteM
  • 7Kristoffer AskildsenM
  • 26Simen Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 10Zlatko TripićF
  • 20Peter ChristiansenF
  • 17Edvin AustbøF
Substitutes
  • 2Herman Johan HaugenD
  • 15Ola VistedM
  • 33Jakob Segadal HansenM
  • 11Romano PostemaF
  • 23Niklas Kemp FuglestadF
  • 30Ľubomír BelkoG
  • 3Viljar VevatneD
  • 27Jesper DalandD
  • 19Amin CosicF
Coach: Bjarte Aarsheim
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-2-3-1
  • 87Leander ØyG
  • 12Claus NiyukuriD
  • 4Bjorn UtvikD
  • 2Marius LodeD
  • 21Anders HiimD
  • 8Sander ChristiansenM
  • 6Aimar SherM
  • 10Sondre SörliM
  • 33Andreas HansenM
  • 77Olaus SkarsemM
  • 11Daniel KarlsbakkF
Substitutes
  • 22Victor Emanuel HalvorsenM
  • 17Noa WilliamsM
  • 32Eirik WichneD
  • 7Camil MmaeeM
  • 13Carljohan ErikssonG
  • 20Peter ReinhardsenD
  • 50Magnus Mevik EidalD
  • 15Michael OpokuM
  • 18Bop GuèyeM
Coach: Even Sel

Form going into Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Viking

  • W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
  • W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
  • W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Viking2015235120+3147
9Sarpsborg 08 FF206772326-325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • 8 August 2026Viking 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 12 July 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingEliteserien
  • 1 March 2026Viking 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 September 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 VikingEliteserien
  • 9 July 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingNM Cupen
  • 4 May 2025Viking 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien

Leading scorers: Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF

Viking

  • P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
  • Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • D. Karlsbakk6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.