Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Viking 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Viking, 27% draw, 31% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Arild ØstbøG
- 18Sondre Flem BjørsholD
- 5Henrik HeggheimD
- 6Gianni StensnessD
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 16Ruben AlteM
- 7Kristoffer AskildsenM
- 26Simen Kvia-EgeskogM
- 10Zlatko TripićF
- 20Peter ChristiansenF
- 17Edvin AustbøF
- 2Herman Johan HaugenD
- 15Ola VistedM
- 33Jakob Segadal HansenM
- 11Romano PostemaF
- 23Niklas Kemp FuglestadF
- 30Ľubomír BelkoG
- 3Viljar VevatneD
- 27Jesper DalandD
- 19Amin CosicF
- 87Leander ØyG
- 12Claus NiyukuriD
- 4Bjorn UtvikD
- 2Marius LodeD
- 21Anders HiimD
- 8Sander ChristiansenM
- 6Aimar SherM
- 10Sondre SörliM
- 33Andreas HansenM
- 77Olaus SkarsemM
- 11Daniel KarlsbakkF
- 22Victor Emanuel HalvorsenM
- 17Noa WilliamsM
- 32Eirik WichneD
- 7Camil MmaeeM
- 13Carljohan ErikssonG
- 20Peter ReinhardsenD
- 50Magnus Mevik EidalD
- 15Michael OpokuM
- 18Bop GuèyeM
Form going into Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
- W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 47 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 8 August 2026Viking 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 12 July 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingEliteserien
- 1 March 2026Viking 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 VikingEliteserien
- 9 July 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingNM Cupen
- 4 May 2025Viking 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
Leading scorers: Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF
Viking
- P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
- Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D. Karlsbakk6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.