Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Hamburger SV, 27% draw, 28% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Hamburger SV at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
Line-ups
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 4B. NadirM
- 21N. RembergM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 27P. DakaF
- 18B. JattaM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 43S. NandjaD
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 16S. BellD
Form going into Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
All competitions we cover
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
- 20 February 2026FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 3 March 2018Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 14 October 2017FSV Mainz 05 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 7 May 2017Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FSV Mainz 05 won 5–0 at Hamburger SV. The model had leaned towards a win for Hamburger SV at 45% and given a win for FSV Mainz 05 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sheraldo Becker 19' for FSV Mainz 05, Phillipp Mwene 41' for FSV Mainz 05, Phillip Tietz 48' for FSV Mainz 05, Phillip Tietz 83' for FSV Mainz 05, Ransford Konigsdorffer 90+1' for FSV Mainz 05.
How the call on Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Hamburger SV's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- Hamburger SV win45%▲ +10
- Draw27%▼ −1
- FSV Mainz 05 win28%▼ −9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.