Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Hamburger SV, 27% draw, 28% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hamburger SV at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
Line-ups
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 4B. NadirM
- 21N. RembergM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 27P. DakaF
- 18B. JattaM
- 37L. LemkeD
- 43S. NandjaD
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 16S. BellD
Form going into Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 0 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
- 6 September 2026Hamburger SV 0–5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 20 February 2026FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 3 March 2018Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 14 October 2017FSV Mainz 05 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 7 May 2017Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
No league goals yet this season.
FSV Mainz 05
- P. Tietz3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.