Santa Clara vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Santa Clara 4-0 Rio Ave.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Santa Clara, 27% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
Line-ups
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 70Vinícius LopesM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosM
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 99SorrisoF
- 25F. MedeirosF
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 12NenecaG
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 22VitinhoM
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 18A. DuarteF
- 73Léo JacóF
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 54G. LiavasD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 17M. VrousaiD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaM
- 77D. ŠpikićM
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 22K. ChamorroG
- 79M. PatricioM
- 20João ToméD
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 80S. ClemmensenF
- 60CaikeD
- 27T. MedinaM
- 98Rodrigo Ramos RealG
Form going into Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
Santa Clara
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
Rio Ave
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
- L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
- 6 September 2026Santa Clara 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 11 April 2026Santa Clara 0–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 30 November 2025Rio Ave 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 18 April 2025Rio Ave 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2024Santa Clara 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 27 July 2024Rio Ave 1–2 Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Rio Ave
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.