Santa Clara vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Santa Clara 4-0 Rio Ave.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Santa Clara, 27% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Clara at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
Line-ups
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 70Vinícius LopesM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosM
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 99SorrisoF
- 25F. MedeirosF
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 12NenecaG
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 22VitinhoM
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 18A. DuarteF
- 73Léo JacóF
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 54G. LiavasD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 17M. VrousaiD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaM
- 77D. ŠpikićM
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 22K. ChamorroG
- 79M. PatricioM
- 20João ToméD
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 80S. ClemmensenF
- 60CaikeD
- 27T. MedinaM
- 98Rodrigo Ramos RealG
Form going into Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
Santa Clara
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
- D2-2Nacional10 August 2026
Rio Ave
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
- L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
- L0-1away to GIL Vicente9 August 2026
What these results say
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Santa Clara had two goals or fewer.
- Rio Ave failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rio Ave failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rio Ave conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Clara vs Rio Ave
- 11 April 2026Santa Clara 0–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 30 November 2025Rio Ave 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 18 April 2025Rio Ave 1–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2024Santa Clara 1–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 27 July 2024Rio Ave 1–2 Santa ClaraFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Santa Clara and Rio Ave
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Clara beat Rio Ave 4–0. The model had made a win for Santa Clara its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Brenner Lucas Goncalves Santos 3' for Santa Clara, Tiago Ribeiro 47' for Santa Clara, Vinicius lopes 52' for Santa Clara, Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira 90' for Santa Clara.
How the call on Santa Clara v Rio Ave has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Santa Clara's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Santa Clara win50%▼ −4
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Rio Ave win23%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.