Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-1 Hapoel Ramat Gan.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Hapoel Petah Tikva, 30% draw, 31% Hapoel Ramat Gan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Hapoel Petah Tikva at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. KatzG
- 12S. IsraeliD
- 5A. Moucketou-MoussoundaD
- 20O. IsraelovD
- 3H. ShalomD
- 8T. AltmanM
- 29B. GontranM
- 77CléM
- 28Noam CohenM
- 7R. LevyM
- 9E. BilleF
- 72Y. NassarD
- 16R. DavidM
- 34Omri CohenF
- 24G. BadashF
- 6Etai EhudM
- 11H. KeytaF
- 26K. KimvuidiM
- 18A. MashiahG
- 66M. MeirD
- 55Amit RaifG
- 15N. SchwartzD
- 5Jota GonçalvesD
- 4Márcio SilvaD
- 3D. TischlerD
- 66S. MijailovićM
- 7M. PlakushchenkoM
- 10M. SemelM
- 21I. OliM
- 11D. AsankaM
- 99Luan CamposF
- 20C. BonifaceM
- 24T. GlazerM
- 33F. IbrahimD
- 6G. NaorM
- 9M. NoubissiF
- 16A. ZurD
- 2Getachew YabeloD
- 8I. BarnesF
- 22A. YankoG
Form going into Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa31 October 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bnei Sakhnin17 October 2026
- L0-3Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Ligat Ha'al
- L0-5Maccabi Tel Aviv2 November 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hapoel Haifa17 October 2026
- L0-4Beitar Jerusalem11 October 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Petah Tikva did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Ramat Gan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Ramat Gan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Hapoel Ramat Gan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Ramat Gan
- 29 July 2026Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 5 May 2025Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 3 March 2025Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 29 October 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 1–1 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 24 February 2023Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–1 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 4 November 2022Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–1 Hapoel Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
Leading scorers: Hapoel Petah Tikva and Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Ramat Gan
GoalsAssists
- Luan Campos31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hapoel Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 2–1. The model had made a win for Hapoel Petah Tikva its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Boni Amian 31' for Hapoel Petah Tikva, Roei Levy 33' for Hapoel Petah Tikva, Moshe Semel 50' for Hapoel Ramat Gan. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.50.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Petah Tikva a 70.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 62.4% after a win, 73.4% after a draw, 80.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 8 points lower than before the match.
For Hapoel Ramat Gan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 61.8% going in: 49.9% after a win, 64.9% after a draw, 68.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.1%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hapoel Petah Tikva v Hapoel Ramat Gan has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is Hapoel Ramat Gan's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva win39%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Hapoel Ramat Gan win31%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.