Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Tiberias 1-1 Beitar Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Ironi Tiberias, 27% draw, 49% Beitar Jerusalem — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Beitar Jerusalem at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22I. SharonG
- 17R. UngerD
- 37O. BačoD
- 47D. GolaniD
- 3D. KeltjensD
- 23C. KouakouM
- 18E. ShamirM
- 14G. SankerM
- 9A. MiranyanM
- 11niv gotliebM
- 84N. GbambléM
- 1G. AmosG
- 5N. ChenD
- 8A. CohenM
- 10B. CohenM
- 7S. FarhudF
- 77A. YehudaF
- 12Ghanam CaseF
- 30M. BadjieF
- 19G. Ma'atukD
- 55Miguel SilvaG
- 2N. AntwiD
- 4B. CarabalíD
- 44L. GadraniD
- 5G. CohenD
- 40B. EnowM
- 80Alexis SernaM
- 10A. YonaM
- 77O. AtziliF
- 19S. WeissmanF
- 7Y. ShuaF
- 30T. YosefiM
- 26D. WorkoM
- 91N. ShedoF
- 22Y. OzerG
- 14R. ElimelechD
- 25L. DeriD
- 8Z. ShimolM
- 23O. N. AzoF
- 13E. AnsahF
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1away to Bnei Sakhnin31 October 2026
- D1-1Maccabi Netanya24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026
Beitar Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- D1-1Ironi Kiryat Shmona31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva25 October 2026
- D0-0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 October 2026
- W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026
What these results say
- Ironi Tiberias did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Ironi Tiberias conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Ironi Tiberias had two goals or fewer.
- Beitar Jerusalem went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Beitar Jerusalem | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem
- 4 April 2026Beitar Jerusalem 3–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 27 December 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–2 Beitar JerusalemState Cup
- 3 December 2025Ironi Tiberias 0–5 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 23 December 2024Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 31 August 2024Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 3 January 2023Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Ironi TiberiasState Cup
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Beitar Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili33
- E. Ansah31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ironi Tiberias and Beitar Jerusalem drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Beitar Jerusalem at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Badjie 47' for Ironi Tiberias, Nana Kwame Antwi 61' for Beitar Jerusalem. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ironi Tiberias a 46.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.3% after a win, 46.2% after a draw, 51.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 46.2%.
For Beitar Jerusalem the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 95.7% going in: 97.1% after a win, 95.0% after a draw, 93.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 95.0%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.