Hapoel Haifa
vs
Bnei Sakhnin
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Haifa 3-1 Bnei Sakhnin.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Hapoel Haifa, 28% draw, 22% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.76, Bnei Sakhnin 0.82.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Haifa at 50% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Line-ups
- 1Y. GerafiG
- 2N. CohenD
- 13D. ŽuparićD
- 5I. KričakD
- 77A. MendyD
- 55N. SabagM
- 8Cheick KeitaM
- 15Y. GonenM
- 10S. EliasM
- 7L. RotmanM
- 17A. TurgemanF
- 11I. S. FahimaM
- 23M. AmbarG
- 9W. AgadaF
- 4D. MalulD
- 14W. HabiballaF
- 25G. DibaD
- 21C DiakitéF
- 12A. AyiasF
- 18Itay ZafraniF
- 1R. BălbărăuG
- 29A. SalmanD
- 2M. GantusD
- 4O. DahanD
- 17Amit KaradiD
- 92Saná GomesD
- 77A. SeferM
- 8M. VorobjovasM
- 28I. HagagM
- 10M. Anim CudjoeF
- 24B. KhuriF
- 7M. YusefM
- 6A. TahaD
- 16L. HalafF
- 44A. GnamehD
- 20M. GanameD
- 11J. BushnaqF
- 21M. Abu RiyaM
- 22M. Abu NilG
- 5I. Abu AbaidD
Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Haifa
- D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 August 2026
Bnei Sakhnin
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
- L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Maccabi Netanya24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hapoel Haifa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Bnei Sakhnin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin
- 14 September 2026Hapoel Haifa 3–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 1 August 2026Bnei Sakhnin 1–2 Hapoel HaifaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 18 May 2026Hapoel Haifa 3–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 30 December 2025Hapoel Haifa 0–2 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
- 13 September 2025Bnei Sakhnin 0–2 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 30 July 2025Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Haifa
- A. Turgeman2 goals1 assists
- L. Rotman1 goals2 assists
Bnei Sakhnin
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 0.82 for Bnei Sakhnin; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: yaad gonen 6' (Hapoel Haifa), C Keita 23' (Hapoel Haifa), basil khuri 25' (Bnei Sakhnin), Liran Rotman 29' (Hapoel Haifa).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 0.82 for Bnei Sakhnin. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.97 for Bnei Sakhnin.