Regular Season - 4 · 14 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa
Full time3 1

Final score: Hapoel Haifa 3-1 Bnei Sakhnin.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Hapoel Haifa, 28% draw, 22% Bnei Sakhnin — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.76, Bnei Sakhnin 0.82.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin

47%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 13%2-0 12%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hapoel Haifa at 50% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Haifa99%Draw1%Bnei Sakhnin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

yaad gonenassist: Arial Mendy
6'
C Keita
19'
C Keitaassist: Liran Rotman
23'
25'
basil khuriassist: Antonio Sefer
yaad gonen
27'
Liran Rotmanassist: Alon Turgeman
29'
Liran Rotman
29'
Noam Cohen
37'
45+2'
Ahmed Ibrahim Salman
45'
🔁Saná Gomesout: Ahmad Taha
45'
🔁Ilay Hajajout: Jubayer Bushnak
45'
🔁Ahmed Ibrahim Salmanout: Iyad Abu Abaid
naor sabag
60'
🔁Shai Eliasout: C Diakité
63'
69'
maroun gantus
70'
🔁Amit Krediout: mohamad ganame
🔁Alon Turgemanout: William Agade
72'
🔁Liran Rotmanout: Wahib·Habiballa
72'
74'
basil khuri
79'
🔁Ahmad Tahaout: Muhammad Taher Abu Riya
85'
Antonio Sefer
88'
Antonio Sefer (pen)
🔁C Keitaout: Dor Malul
89'
🔁yaad gonenout: Israel Sali Pahima
90'

Match stats — Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin

45%Possession55%
14Shots10
5On target6
3Corners6

Line-ups

Hapoel Haifa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. GerafiG
  • 2N. CohenD
  • 13D. ŽuparićD
  • 5I. KričakD
  • 77A. MendyD
  • 55N. SabagM
  • 8Cheick KeitaM
  • 15Y. GonenM
  • 10S. EliasM
  • 7L. RotmanM
  • 17A. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 11I. S. FahimaM
  • 23M. AmbarG
  • 9W. AgadaF
  • 4D. MalulD
  • 14W. HabiballaF
  • 25G. DibaD
  • 21C DiakitéF
  • 12A. AyiasF
  • 18Itay ZafraniF
Coach: H. Silbas
Bnei Sakhnin 5-3-2
  • 1R. BălbărăuG
  • 29A. SalmanD
  • 2M. GantusD
  • 4O. DahanD
  • 17Amit KaradiD
  • 92Saná GomesD
  • 77A. SeferM
  • 8M. VorobjovasM
  • 28I. HagagM
  • 10M. Anim CudjoeF
  • 24B. KhuriF
Substitutes
  • 7M. YusefM
  • 6A. TahaD
  • 16L. HalafF
  • 44A. GnamehD
  • 20M. GanameD
  • 11J. BushnaqF
  • 21M. Abu RiyaM
  • 22M. Abu NilG
  • 5I. Abu AbaidD
Coach: Y. Abukasis

Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin

Hapoel Haifa

  • D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya7 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva2 September 2026
  • D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 August 2026

Bnei Sakhnin

  • L0-1Beitar Jerusalem7 September 2026
  • L1-2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Maccabi Netanya24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Hapoel Haifa413064+26
14Bnei Sakhnin401326-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Haifa vs Bnei Sakhnin

  • 14 September 2026Hapoel Haifa 3–1 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
  • 1 August 2026Bnei Sakhnin 1–2 Hapoel HaifaToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 18 May 2026Hapoel Haifa 3–0 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
  • 30 December 2025Hapoel Haifa 0–2 Bnei SakhninLigat Ha'al
  • 13 September 2025Bnei Sakhnin 0–2 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
  • 30 July 2025Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Bnei SakhninToto Cup Ligat Al

Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Bnei Sakhnin

Hapoel Haifa

  • A. Turgeman2 goals1 assists
  • L. Rotman1 goals2 assists

Bnei Sakhnin

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for Hapoel Haifa and 0.82 for Bnei Sakhnin; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: yaad gonen 6' (Hapoel Haifa), C Keita 23' (Hapoel Haifa), basil khuri 25' (Bnei Sakhnin), Liran Rotman 29' (Hapoel Haifa).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hapoel Haifa the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 0.82 for Bnei Sakhnin. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.97 for Bnei Sakhnin.