Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 26% draw, 25% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.26, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.28.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Line-ups
- 1O. MelikaG
- 2J. TavernierD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 22N. Ben HarushD
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 77O. DavidaM
- 42Dor PeretzM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 29Hélio VarelaM
- 9E. SoklerF
- 36I. ShaharM
- 60I. Ben SimonF
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 6T. AsanteD
- 18D. GlazerM
- 33H. LayousF
- 19E. MadmonF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 30I. NoyM
- 22A. TzurG
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 98FalcãoM
- 6A. KraevM
- 11S. TorialM
- 35D. OwusuM
- 15R. AlkokinM
- 9E. BoatengF
- 7R. KorineF
- 14E. KancepolskyM
- 44D. DappaF
- 27M. BuskilaF
- 23A. LemkinM
- 51O. AltmanF
- 18T. ArchelD
- 1Dor BenyaminiG
- 21S. PivenD
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 14 September 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 9 May 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–1 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 19 April 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 26 January 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 14 January 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–1 Maccabi Tel AvivState Cup
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz4 goals1 assists
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assists
- O. Davida2 goals
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- D. Owusu2 goals
- E. Boateng1 goals2 assists
- S. Torial1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.26 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.28 for Hapoel Tel Aviv; the game produced 4 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Dor Peretz 19' (Maccabi Tel Aviv), stav torial 33' (Hapoel Tel Aviv), Osher Davida 36' (Maccabi Tel Aviv), Hisham Layous 88' (Maccabi Tel Aviv), Elad Madmon 90' (Maccabi Tel Aviv).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 1.28 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 1/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.39 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.