Ironi Kiryat Shmona
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0-4 Maccabi Haifa.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 26% draw, 48% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.35, Maccabi Haifa 2.27.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
Line-ups
- 19DanielG
- 20O. DarwishD
- 26N. LjubisavljevićD
- 32S. Ben-DavidD
- 11S. SabahD
- 63Alexandre SolaM
- 6O. BenbenishtiM
- 7A. SagnaM
- 10A. ShirdatzkiM
- 21R. AbdullazadəM
- 39N. GabayF
- 24N. MarkovitchM
- 9A. PopM
- 17I. ShoolmaysterD
- 8Talles CostaM
- 28I. VaierD
- 1Nikola DjurkovicG
- 4A. GlazerD
- 44S. EdriD
- 12J. Al HalabiF
- 55O. GlazerG
- 25J. BatailleD
- 21N. LonwijkD
- 66TsunamiD
- 16K. SaiefD
- 19E. AzoulayM
- 4A. MuhammadM
- 30Pedro BrazãoM
- 7Y. MordechaiM
- 10BruninhoM
- 9A. NovakovićF
- 35N. SztejfmanD
- 90G. AlvinG
- 45C. DonF
- 3S. GoldbergD
- 11K. GorréF
- 26S. KaniM
- 29Iyad KhalailiM
- 8Y. LeviM
- 36N. RatnerD
Form going into Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
- L2-4away to Hapoel Jerusalem5 September 2026
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Ramat Gan22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Maccabi Haifa
- 14 September 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–4 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 28 July 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3–0 Maccabi HaifaToto Cup Ligat Al
- 12 April 2026Maccabi Haifa 4–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 6 December 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 11 January 2025Maccabi Haifa 4–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
- 28 September 2024Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–4 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Maccabi Haifa
- Bruninho3 goals1 assists
- E. Azoulay2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.35 goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona and 2.27 for Maccabi Haifa; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ethane Azoulay 40' (Maccabi Haifa), Pedro Brazão 56' (Maccabi Haifa), Noam Sztejfman 66' (Maccabi Haifa), Tsunami 86' (Maccabi Haifa).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ironi Kiryat Shmona against 2.27 for Maccabi Haifa. Ironi Kiryat Shmona's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.46 for Maccabi Haifa.