17 October 2026, 15:45 UTC

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Bloomfield Stadium, Tel-Aviv
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0 Ironi Tiberias.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 25% draw, 19% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Tel Aviv96%Draw4%Ironi Tiberias0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Andrian Kraev
2'
Andrian Kraev
4'
10'
Ziv Morgan
Fernand Mayembo
19'
35'
junior nene bi gbamble
•Chico
45'
Marcus Coco
45+5'
45'
🔁Guy Sankerout: ariel cohen
🔁Emmanuel Boatengout: stav torial
61'
Daniel Dappa
61'
72'
🔁junior nene bi gbambleout: M. Badjie
72'
🔁Artur Miranyanout: Ghanam Case
🔁Roee alkokinout: Amit lemkin
72'
🔁yam el kancepolskyout: tal archel
72'
tal archel
76'
78'
Ido Sharon
⚽Omri Altman (pen)
81'
🔁Omri Altmanout: Daniel Dappa
86'
🔁douglas owusuout: Doron Leidner
86'
87'
🔁niv gotliebout: Samir Farhud
87'
🔁David Keltjensout: Chris Kouakou

Match stats — Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias

55%Possession45%
17Shots12
9On target3
6Corners2
1.49xG1.01

Goals against chances

Hapoel Tel Aviv1 from 1.49 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ironi Tiberias0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hapoel Tel Aviv 4-2-3-1
  • 22A. TzurG
  • 97M. CocoD
  • 5F. MayemboD
  • 4ChicoD
  • 32Y. LeliendalD
  • 14E. KancepolskyM
  • 6A. KraevM
  • 35D. OwusuM
  • 15R. AlkokinM
  • 51O. AltmanM
  • 9E. BoatengF
Substitutes
  • 18T. ArchelD
  • 1Dor BenyaminiG
  • 27M. BuskilaF
  • 44D. DappaF
  • 7R. KorineF
  • 16D. LeidnerD
  • 23A. LemkinM
  • 21S. PivenD
  • 11S. TorialF
Coach: E. Barda
Ironi Tiberias 5-3-2
  • 22I. SharonG
  • 14G. SankerD
  • 17R. UngerD
  • 37O. BačoD
  • 13Z. MorganD
  • 47D. GolaniD
  • 18E. ShamirM
  • 11niv gotliebM
  • 3D. KeltjensM
  • 9A. MiranyanF
  • 84N. GbambléF
Substitutes
  • 23C. KouakouM
  • 5N. ChenD
  • 12Ghanam CaseF
  • 7S. FarhudF
  • 8A. CohenM
  • 10B. CohenM
  • 30M. BadjieF
  • 1G. AmosG
  • 27Y. SwisaM
Coach: A. Ziv

Form going into Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ligat Ha'al

  • W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026

Ironi Tiberias

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hapoel Tel Aviv10811216+1525
14Ironi Tiberias102441014-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias

  • 7 February 2026Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
  • 1 November 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
  • 28 December 2024Ironi Tiberias 0–2 Hapoel Tel AvivState Cup

Leading scorers: Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Tel Aviv

GoalsAssists

  • R. Alkokin32
  • E. Boateng32
  • D. Dappa31

Ironi Tiberias

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hapoel Tel Aviv beat Ironi Tiberias 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv at 56%. The goal: Omri Altman (penalty) 81' for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Sent off: Andrian Kraev (Hapoel Tel Aviv) 4'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Tel Aviv a 77.5% chance to finish in the top four: 80.5% after a win, 75.4% after a draw, 70.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.5%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Ironi Tiberias the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.0% going in: 29.9% after a win, 38.7% after a draw, 43.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.1%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hapoel Tel Aviv v Ironi Tiberias has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is Hapoel Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Hapoel Tel Aviv win56%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Ironi Tiberias win19%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.